• The Colts have the better offense: When it comes to moving the ball on offense, the Colts have been far more efficient than the Titans, who have been a bottom-tier offense since Will Levis took over at quarterback.
• A big opportunity for Minshew and company: Over the last month, no team has been a bigger pass funnel than the Titans, who have produced a league-best success rate facing the run but the second-worst success rate against the pass.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
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Best bet: QB Gardner Minshew 275+ passing yards & Indianapolis Colts -5.5 (+1000)
• When it comes to moving the ball on offense, the Colts have been far more efficient than the Titans, who have been a bottom-tier offense since Will Levis took over at quarterback.
• The Titans have been stronger than the Colts on defense, which should, in theory, level the matchup between these teams and explain why the teams are only separated by a single point. However, that lacks some critical context.
• Since Levis took over in Week 8, the Titans have faced a bottom-tier offense in every game outside their Week 11 tilt against the Jaguars (where the defense was beaten badly). So, the slate of weak opponents has seemingly propped up this defense.
• The offense has struggled immensely, even against weaker defenses, managing only one average and four well-below-average performances. The Colts figure to be one of their tougher opponents, especially given some matchup factors.
Matchup Angle
• Over the last month, no team has been a bigger pass funnel than the Titans, who have produced a league-best success rate facing the run but the second-worst success rate against the pass.
• This should tilt the Colts to the pass, not only because it is the path of least resistance but also because the Colts have shown to tailor their run-pass game plan specific to their opponents.
• The team varies its game plan and run-pass splits every week. Now, this means that if the Colts are to win — and win big — it will likely be due to quarterback Gardner Minshew. But it also means they should be efficient if they turn pass-heavy and attack the Titans where they are weakest.
Even in obvious passing situations, Minshew and the Colts have been remarkably efficient, generating the fourth-most expected points added (EPA) per play on obvious passing downs, with Minshew rarely taking sacks that kill drives.
Bottom line
The Colts should not be afraid to attack the Titans where they are weakest, and Minshew has excelled in those very same spots. The Titans have struggled on offense since Levis took over as starter, and their recent defensive mediocrity is propped up by an easy set of opponents that are worse and less willing to go pass-heavy than the Colts.
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