• Bet the still-hot Houston offense (-3) to end Denver's win streak: C.J. Stroud and the Texans' offense, with an offensive line that is poised to hold up quite well against the Broncos' pass rush even without Tytus Howard, should be able to move the ball very effectively.
• Bet the Lions (-3.5) to bounce back against the Saints: A potentially very banged-up Saints offense should help to alleviate some of Detroit’s recent struggles on defense.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
If you are betting on NFL spreads, it's best to do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, we are here to share our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move.
We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 20-17 (+2.5 units) this season after a 2-1 week. Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord.
If you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.
Houston Texans (-3) vs. Denver Broncos
• This spread landing on a field goal feels like an incorrect reaction to Week 12 results for Houston and Denver. The Broncos proved victorious in a similar fashion to how they've landed in the win column throughout their five-game streak. They recovered three Browns fumbles in Week 12, pushing their fumble recovery total to nine over their past five games. Meanwhile, the offense ranks 20th in EPA per play and 21st in success rate over the span.
• Houston averaged 6.1 yards per play against the Jaguars' defense in their last-second defeat, consistently moving the ball well with a few penalties, stalled drives and missed kicks hurting them in the end. For reference, Denver has averaged 4.6 yards per play over its five-game win streak, good for 26th in the NFL. Houston’s 6.2 mark over the same span trails only the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers.
• Denver’s defense has played much better over this stretch, but the turnovers and splash plays once again cover up a deeper story. The Broncos' defense has allowed a 45.4% success rate over their win streak, the third-worst clip in the NFL. C.J. Stroud and the Texans' offense, with an offensive line that is poised to hold up quite well against the Broncos' pass rush even without Tytus Howard, should be able to move the ball very effectively.
Teaser: Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals & Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-120)
• This is a Wong Teaser, which happens when each side you tease crosses both the numbers three and seven, as is the case here with the Jaguars moving from -7.5 to -1.5 and the Cowboys moving from -7.5 to -1.5. Because three and seven are the most common end-of-game point differentials, crossing those numbers gives the bettor more outcomes for which each side wins.
• Trevor Lawrence is finally starting to put up box-score stats that reflect his true performance, ranking fourth in PFF passing grade among active QBs. In this matchup, he faces a Bengals defense that ranks dead last in yards per play allowed over the last five weeks and is 31st in expected points allowed over that same span. After Cincinnati was shredded by George Kittle a few weeks ago and then Pat Freiermuth this past week, look for Evan Engram to have a big week along with Lawrence.
• The Cowboys have been punishing at home, covering every single home game and putting opposing defenses in a blender. The Seahawks struggled mightily against the 49ers a week ago and now face Dak Prescott coming off the highest-graded game of his career. The Cowboys' defense will have a massive advantage rushing the passer against this Seahawks line that has only one starter grading above 60.0.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints
• The Lions are coming off their most disappointing performance of the season, but there is reason to believe they can bounce back. For the most part, the Lions' offensive struggles against the Packers on Thanksgiving stemmed from offensive line issues. The Saints rank 17th in pressure rate this year and have been trending downward defensively over the past couple of weeks, especially without cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who is on injured reserve.
• The Saints let the Falcons run for more than 200 yards on them, and the Lions have the requisite power to do the same. Detroit quarterback Jared Goff has also performed very well in domes and is going against a pass defense that ranks 24th in expected points added per dropback over the past five weeks.
• The Saints' offense continues to take one step forward and two steps back. They do a great job of moving the ball into opposing territory, at which point costly turnovers tend to end abruptly drives. Michael Thomas is on injured reserve, Chris Olave was being treated for a concussion this past week and Rashid Shaheed also exited in Week 12. A potentially very banged-up Saints offense should help to alleviate some of Detroit’s recent struggles on defense.
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