Throughout the years, PFF data scientists have developed and conducted numerous studies to better understand and predict performance.
While many of these seminal works have furthered the conversation and certainly linger in the background, the goal is to identify how the findings manifest in particular weekly matchups and to source the matchups or interactions the betting market has overlooked.
Some bets will track traditional markets, but others will look to more exotic markets to ensure we utilize the best market for the particular thesis or angle.
Matchup Angle: The Miami Dolphins dominate a Washington Commanders defense that leans on man coverage
• The market is certainly aware that the Washington Commanders defense has struggled while the Miami Dolphins offense has been one of the best in the NFL. However, a few matchup factors suggest that the Dolphins maintain a fat right tail that markets are still likely mispricing.
• Washington has played man coverage at a top-five rate for the season and over the last six games. As we have studied at PFF, man coverage tends to produce a true reflection of the talent on the field — the better player will come out on top more often than not, whether that be the wide receiver or cornerback.
• Few NFL receivers are better than Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle against man coverage, with Hill leading the league in yards per route run against man and Waddle not far behind.
• While Commanders cornerback Kendall Fuller is having a terrific year, he is no match for Hill and Waddle, who will move around the formation and run routes against the multiple weak links in the Commanders' secondary.
• Further elevating and compounding this spot is that the Dolphins have generated the most explosive drives of any offense in the NFL this season, while the Commanders have allowed the second-most explosive drives. Add it up, and the Dolphins have a path to continually lighting up the scoreboard and can do so quickly via chunk yardage.
Bets to make: In a spot where points can really add up quickly for the Dolphins, I will be playing some alternate spreads while building same-game parlays around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Matchup Angle: Bet on Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff in a spot with situational advantage
• As we studied this summer, quarterbacks who rarely scramble are more situation- and matchup-sensitive than those who scramble more frequently.
• Jared Goff fits the bill of a situation-dependent QB, as he has one of the lowest scramble rates in the NFL and drastic splits when playing in and out of structure.
• The Lions quarterback ranks fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play when he does not see quick pressure but dips to 26th in EPA per play when he does face quick pressure.
• Goff's Week 13 opponent, the New Orleans Saints, has produced the third-lowest quick pressure rate in the NFL and has the lowest quick-pressure rate over the last seven weeks.
Bets to make: I’ll be looking to bet on the Lions spread and alternate spreads, along with Detroit's team total overs and Jared Goff passing props.
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