• Undefeated against the spread this season (6-0-1) with QB Taylor Heinicke as the starter, Washington (-2.5) visits the increasingly desperate Giants, who are 8-3-1 ATS as divisional underdogs with Daniel Jones.
• Mike Vrabel's Titans (+5.5) — 15-9 ATS as road underdogs, including 12-5 when getting more than 3 points — visit the Eagles, who are 10-4-1 ATS when favored at home with Jalen Hurts.
• Dak Prescott is 14-2 SU, 10-5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7+ points. Dallas is laying 11 vs the Colts, but Prescott's Cowboys historically crush here.
Last updated: Nov. 30, 9:30 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 8 mins
Week 13 projects to be the most exciting week of the NFL season. Here are as many trends as possible for you to note prior to any wagers placed on the marquee games.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (+4, 43.5)
– In the past 15 TNF games between division opponents, the road team is 11-4 ATS
– The last 6 TNF games are 5-1 to the Over
– Since 2021, when the road team is favored on TNF, the Under is 11-2
– Road favorites in divisional matchups are 8-13 ATS this season, a span in which the Under is 14-5-1.
• The trends above heavily contradict one another, and I wouldn’t suggest putting too much stock into any of them. However, the aforementioned streaks toward the Under are overwhelming.
– The Bills have gone Under in 7 straight as a Road Favorite
– The Bills are 6-0 to the Under on the Road this season
– Josh Allen is 3-0-1 ATS in New England
– Josh Allen is 4-0 SU, and 3-1 ATS on Thursdays
• The Bills are streaking Under in this scenario, and such a trend suggests caution in betting the Over 43.5 on Thursday Night. Additionally, despite Allen’s success here, the sample size is quite small.
– Bill Belichick is 13-6 ATS as a Home Underdog
• The majority of these wins came with QB Tom Brady at the helm. Belichick is 5-5 ATS without Brady in this spot.
New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings (-3, 45.5)
– Kirk Cousins is 24-5 SU as a Home Favorite at 1 p.m. ET
• Kirk Cousins catches plenty of flak for his history in primetime, but he has been excellent in the 1 p.m. window. However, do not interpret this as reasoning to bet the Vikings money line. Favorites are supposed to win, and although Cousins' win percentage in this scenario is pristine, the trend is likely just noise.
– 1 p.m. home favorites are 36-14 SU, and 27-20-3 ATS this season
– 1 p.m. home favorites are 19-3 SU, and 15-5-2 ATS since Week 8 this season
Yet another interesting 1 p.m. nugget. This trend would apply to the Eagles as well, but it feels appropriate to include here.
– The Jets are 4-1 ATS on the road this season
– The Jets are 9-2 ATS in the first half this season
• With QB Mike White inserted into the starting lineup in Week 12, there are fewer trends to pull for the Jets in this spot. Both streaks here are notable, although they were built with a combination of Zach Wilson and Joe Flacco as the team’s signal caller.
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants (+2.5, 40.5)
– Washington is 6-1 SU, and 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven games
– Taylor Heinicke is 7-4 ATS on the Road, covering 4 straight
– Taylor Heinicke is 13-9-1 ATS for his career, and 14-9 to the Under
• Heinicke's Commanders have been scorching of late. Washington is undefeated ATS this season with Heinicke as the starter, looking to continue this trend in a crucial matchup in the Meadowlands.
– Daniel Jones is 23-14 ATS as an underdog
– Daniel Jones is 10-5 ATS vs the NFC East
– Daniel Jones is 8-3 ATS as an underdog in the division
• New York QB Daniel Jones has thrived both as an underdog and against the NFC East. Losers in two straight, the Giants need to not only cover the spread, but win this game outright to remain in playoff contention.
– The Under is 18-4 since 2000 when Washington plays the Giants in New York
• This trend is mostly irrelevant, but it's intriguing nevertheless.
Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 44.5)
– The Titans have covered 5 straight on the road
– The Titans are 8-3 ATS this season
– The Titans are 9-2 ATS in the first half this season
– Mike Vrabel is 24-15 ATS as an underdog
– Mike Vrabel is 15-9 ATS as a road underdog
– Mike Vrabel is 12-5 ATS as a road underdog of more than 3 points.
• The Titans are among the most profitable teams to bet on this season, and Mike Vrabel is among the most profitable coaches to back as an underdog. All good things must come to an end, but be wary of fading Tennessee.
– Jalen Hurts is 10-4-1 ATS at Home, these same games are 11-4 to the Over
– Jalen Hurts is 7-1-1 ATS as a Home Favorite, these same games are 8-1 to the Over
• It’s a rorschach test of sorts– do you prefer the Titans, or the Eagles in this spot? Because the trends pointing to either side are rather compelling.
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers (-4, 46.5)
– Kyle Shanahan is 9-18-1 ATS as a home favorite
– Kyle Shanahan is 6-1 ATS in his past seven as a home favorite
• Head Coach Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers have historically underperformed in this spot, but their recent rhythm is notable and should pause those looking to bet on Miami. That being said, the Niners were fortunate to cover last week versus New Orleans, and there may still be merit in fading San Fran at home.
– The Dolphins are 8-0 SU, and 6-2 ATS this season when Tua Tagovailoa starts (excluding Week 4 in Cincinnati)
– Tua Tagovailoa is 9-4-1 ATS as an Underdog for his career
– The Dolphins are 4-1 to the Over on the Road this season
• The sample size is not overwhelming for any of these trends, but the record is admirable. Cite these if one looks to back Miami, or the Over.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2, 52.5)
– Joe Burrow is 27-14 ATS for his career
– Joe Burrow is 15-3 ATS in his past 18 games
– Joe Burrow is 0-3 SU and ATS as a home underdog of less than a field goal
• God bless those who have bet against Burrow on this elite run. It will have to end at some point, but be cautious in predicting when/where. Further, do not let his 0-3 record in this specific scenario sway one from betting on Cincy here. The sample size is far too small to interpret as signal, and the Bengals are playing their best football of the season.
– Patrick Mahomes is 5-1 ATS as a Road Favorite of 3 points or less, these same games are 5-1 to the Over
– Patrick Mahomes is 23-14-1 ATS on the Road
– Patrick Mahomes is 12-3 to the Over in his last 15 on the Road
• Similarly, while Mahomes’ 5-1 record in this spot is notable, it is too small to act on. In addition, his road success directly conflicts with Burrow’s career ATS record. Perhaps the best way to attack this marquee matchup is with a live bet, although a bet on the Over sure is enticing.
Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys (-11, 43.5)
– The Colts are 2-10 ATS in the first half this season, a span in which the first-half Under is 10-2
– The Colts are 9-3 ATS in the second half this season
• If only it were as easy as betting against the Colts in the first half, and on them in the second. Ride this trend if so inclined, but there is no exact science in betting on the Colts.
– Dak Prescott is 11-4 SU, and 10-5 ATS at home in primetime
– Dak Prescott is 14-2 SU, and 10-5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7+ points
• Prescott has crushed as a home favorite, and in primetime. The spread on this game is huge, but Dallas has a history of covering big numbers, and the Colts look dreadful.
– The Colts are 9-3 to the Under this season
– Sunday Night Football games are 8-4 to the Under this season
– The Home team is 13-2 SU when favored by 7 or more in the last 15 SNF games, these same games are 10-5 to the Under
• This slew of trends suggest an Under bet would be wise. I would tend to agree given both team’s respectable defenses and inclinations to run the ball. However, that is not suggesting these SNF trends are anything other than coincidental.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 40)
– Andy Dalton is 6-20 SU, and 9-17 ATS in primetime
– Andy Dalton is 3-11-1 ATS in his past 15 road games
• It is a perfect storm for those looking to fade Andy Dalton. Be wary though, as this spread has been moved off of Tampa -6.5 on the lookahead line, and such action may indicate sharp money is on New Orleans.
– Since joining the Buccaneers, Tom Brady is 1-4 SU and ATS vs the Saints in the regular season
– Tom Brady is 19-8 SU on Monday Night Football
– Tampa Bay is 3-7-1 ATS this season
– Tampa Bay is 10-1 to the Under in the First Half this season
• Perhaps the only good bet on Tampa this season has been on their first half Under. Considering the Saints were shut out a week ago, and Dalton’s historic struggles in this spot, it may be a side to back once again.
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