NFL Week 12: Favorite player prop bets using PFF Key Insights

• QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos — Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+120 on DraftKings): Nix has done a better job of playing in structure recently, and his PFF passing grade reflects that, rising from 57.1 over the first six weeks of the season (28th among qualifying quarterbacks) to 78.1 since Week 7 (12th).

• TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs — Anytime TD (+125 on FanDuel): This is a get-right spot for Kansas City's offense against a Panthers defense allowing a touchdown on 31% of their drives this season.

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Estimated Reading Time: 17 minutes

Key Insights were developed to help inform winning decisions, whether that’s betting a player prop or making a start/sit decision in fantasy football.

We’ve been tracking the results of logical bets associated with each insight, and in the spirit of transparency, the week-over-week results are included below.

WEEK	WINS	LOSSES	WIN %
1	8	19	30%
2	25	19	57%
3	19	28	40%
4	20	13	61%
5	16	16	50%
6	28	27	51%
7	31	20	61%
8	32	21	60%
9	44	30	59%
10	30	35	46%
11	29	32	48%
TOTAL	282	260	52%

Back-to-back losing weeks bring the season total to 52%, but that hit rate sits slightly higher at 54% when looking at insights since Week 4, when we’ve had three weeks of 2024 data to work with.

As has been the case the past few weeks, all Key Insights can be found on PFF’s Player Profiles for players with an associated insight.

Season-to-date record for all Key Insights: 282-260 (52%)
Key Insights record since Week 4 (3+ weeks of 2024 data): 230-194 (54%)

QB BO NIX, DENVER BRONCOS: OVER 1.5 PASSING TDs (+120 on DraftKings)

KEY INSIGHT: “Nix is primed to capitalize on the Raiders' weak red-zone defense.”

Nix has done a better job of playing in structure recently, and his PFF passing grade reflects that, rising from 57.1 over the first six weeks of the season (28th among qualifying quarterbacks) to 78.1 since Week 7 (12th).