Thursday Night Football Staff Picks: Player props, spread bets and more

• Bet Aaron Rodgers o2.5 rush yards: He's using his legs more of late (11, 41, 4 rushing yards in past 3 games, respectively); Titans rank 6th in pressure rate, creating more potential scramble opportunities.

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• Bet Titans 1H moneyline: They lead the NFL in scripted rushing EPA; Packers grade out 24th in PFF run defense.

Last updated: Nov. 17, 2:45 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins

Here are PFF staff best bets kicking off Week 11 on “Thursday Night Football” with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Tennessee Titans:

Ben Brown: Titans 1H moneyline (+150)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to +135

• They lead the NFL in scripted offensive rushing EPA and are above league average on passing plays, making this relatively straightforward: Titans ideally jump out to an early lead on an impressive first drive featuring Derrick Henry, a consistent recipe for their success this season. Tennessee's first half moneyline is my favorite approach to playing this narrative, and if they flash some potential passing the ball, potentially look for an in-game or second-half number, assuming the Packers are down heading into the third quarter.

Arjun Menon: Aaron Rodgers — Over 2.5 rushing yards

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 3.5

• Rodgers has started using his legs the past two weeks, with rushing totals of 11, 41, and 4 yards the past 3 weeks. The Titans rank 6th in pressure rate this year, and with more pressure, it invites the possibility of more rushing lanes for Rodgers to scramble through. The Packers also are an offense with one of the highest rates perfectly covered plays faced, meaning receivers are usually covered pretty well by opposing defenses. The Titans are one of the best coached defenses in the NFL, so this trend is likely to continue. All we need is one good scramble for this one to cash

Martyn Carlisle: Packers WR Christian Watson — Under 44.5 receiving yards (-110)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 41.5

• Christian Watson excelled against an extremely high amount of Cover-1 last week, going 3-104-3 receiving on 59% of Dallas Cowboys Cover-1 snaps vs 1-3-0 on the 41% of snaps that were not Cover-1. Tennessee plays almost 10% less C1 than Dallas on average (18%), and the Titans also are much better at limiting big plays when they do play man coverage. This is a slow neutral pace affair, so opportunities are likely going to be far more limited for Watson this week, making this a great sell-high spot.

PFF Greenline top play: Titans RB Derrick Henry — Over 21.5 rush attempts

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 22.5

• We're not overthinking this one. Although he hasn't gone over this number in November and only has 22+ carries in four games this season, Henry is built for this kind of matchup. Green Bay is a sieve defending the run, and Rodgers comes off his second-highest-graded game of the season knowing full well the liabilities that reside in Tennessee's secondary as currently configured. The Titans' best defense for Rodgers tonight is a heaping dose of Henry.

PFF staff best bets are 82-70-1 and entering Week 11.