• Bet on Amari Cooper to go OVER 3.5 receptions despite the Browns' QB situation: The Steelers' defense has allowed huge games to multiple wide receivers over the past six weeks, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson's ceiling is still a large unknown.
• Bet on Trevor Lawrence's longest pass to go OVER 35.5 yards: On 33 passes going at least 20 yards downfield, Lawrence has 13 big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays. He has recorded a pass of at least 36 yards in each of his past three games.
• Get $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins, plus a profit boost token every day. Join FanDuel today!
Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
With Week 11 upon us, we find ourselves with no fewer than six of the 13 games with a spread wider than a seven-point favorite, which is fairly uncommon in the NFL — but such is the result of the current quarterback situation in the league. Who could have imagined that Aidan O’Connell, Tommy DeVito and Dorian Thompson-Robinson would all be making at least their second start of the season at this point?
Our bets over the past week won 1.45 units (betting to win one on each bet). This article last week highlighted Christian Watson as having a potential big day against the Steelers' secondary, and it could not have started much better. In the first 90 seconds of the game, he caught two passes for 23 yards. But he had the same stat line at the end of the game despite almost 300 passing yards for the Packers. Two Russell Wilson bets and a Samaje Perine over went 2-1 on Monday Night Football before a Keaton Mitchell under on Thursday Night landed despite a 21-yard gain on one of his eight carries.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns — Amari Cooper Over 3.5 Receptions (+102 Caesars)
The market has firmly decided that Dorian Thompson-Robinson can not and will not pass the football after one game against a Ravens defense that ranks third in both expected points added per play and success rate allowed. And as such, his lines for passing attempts and yards, as well as the receptions and receiving yards lines of all pass-catchers, are much lower than they were for either P.J. Walker or Deshaun Watson.
This appears to be a good edge in a much more favorable matchup for Thompson-Robinson. Amari Cooper had five targets and just one catch against the Ravens' defense, but Baltimore ranks sixth in yards per route run allowed to outside wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Steelers' defense places 26th and has allowed huge games to multiple wide receivers over the past six weeks. Everything Thompson-Robinson did in that game was through easy, shallow passes to David Njoku and Jerome Ford, but I would expect there to be a wider range of players getting the ball against a significantly weaker defense.
Trevor Lawrence Longest Pass Over 35.5 Yards (-109 Caesars)
The Titans' defense allowed Baker Mayfield to throw the ball down the field whenever he wanted in Week 10, and Trevor Lawrence should do the same this week. Former Titans star safety Kevin Byard is now with the Eagles, which left an already struggling Titans secondary in a bit of a hole. And with starting outsider cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting still on the sidelines, the coverage unit is seriously depleted.
Trevor Lawrence has disappointed to an extent this season, having been expected to take a sizable leap with wide receiver Calvin Ridley returning to action following a lengthy suspension. The one thing Lawrence has done well, though, is throw the ball deep. On 33 passes going at least 20 yards downfield, Lawrence has 13 big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays. He has recorded a pass of at least 36 yards in each of his past three games.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.