NFL Week 11 Betting: Best spread, over/under bets before lines move

• Bet the rested Dolphins (-9.5) to take down the Raiders: Mike McDaniel and company have been able to score points at will against below-average defenses, which is what the Raiders are, and they aren’t afraid of running up the score while doing so.

• Bet the Cowboys (-6.5 1H) to get out to an early lead against the Panthers: Overall, the Dallas offense is third in the NFL in scoring drive rate on scripted drives (first 15 plays) and third in scoring drive rate in the first half of games.

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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

If you are betting on NFL spreads, you better do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, we are here to share our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move.

We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 16-15 this season after a 2-1 week. Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord.

If you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.

Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders

• The Las Vegas Raiders are the feel-good story of the NFL because of how they’ve rebounded following the firing of former head coach Josh McDaniels. They’re now 2-0 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce (both games at home) and got to play Zach Wilson and Tommy DeVito, games in which their defense looked impressive.

• But at the end of the day, the Raiders are not a good team. They have a -33 point differential. Their offense ranks 26th in expected points added (EPA) per play, and their defense ranks 17th in EPA allowed per play. They’re also going cross country to play a Dolphins team coming off a bye week.

• The Dolphins, despite their inability to beat teams above .500, rank second in EPA per play on offense and have strung together some quality performances in the weeks since Jalen Ramsey’s return to the lineup.

• Mike McDaniel and company have been able to score points at will against below-average defenses, which is what the Raiders are, and they aren’t afraid of running up the score while doing so. They’ve also covered the spread in every game at home and have scored at least 30 points in the process.

Teaser: Minnesota Vikings (+7.5) @ Denver Broncos with Los Angeles Rams (+8.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-120)

• This is a Wong Teaser, which happens when each side you tease crosses both 3 and 7. Here, the Vikings move from +1.5 to +7.5, and the Rams move from +2.5 to +8.5.

• Because 3 and 7 are the most common end-of-game point differentials, crossing those numbers gives the bettor more outcomes for which each side wins.

• The Vikings have found new life and have done so without Justin Jefferson, who is eligible to return in this game. Over the last two weeks, with quarterback Joshua Dobbs at the helm, the Vikings are seventh in EPA per pass play. They will face a Broncos team on short rest that ranks in the bottom 10 in the same metric over the last five games.

• The Rams get Matthew Stafford back coming off a bye week, with the Seahawks looking ahead to a Thanksgiving battle with the 49ers. Stafford is the better quarterback getting points in this matchup, and 8.5 in this divisional match that saw the Rams win handily in Seattle in Week 1 is a good place to be.

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5 1H, -115) @ Carolina Panthers

• Outside of an ugly loss to the Arizona Cardinals, the Dallas Cowboys have not played down to the level of their competition this season, as they have absolutely obliterated inferior opponents and jumped on them early.

• Overall, the Dallas offense is third in the NFL in scoring drive rate on scripted drives (first 15 plays) and third in scoring drive rate in the first half of games.

• This Panthers team — particularly the offensive line and skill positions — are as bad as any team in the NFL, and Dallas has the league’s best pass rush win rate and pressure rate on dropbacks where the ball is out in 2.5 seconds or less.

• Carolina has allowed the third-worst pressure rate on quick dropbacks, and Bryce Young is going to be running for his life all game long. On defense, the Panthers rank 26th in EPA allowed per play and are dealing with as many injuries as the offense. These two rosters could not be further apart from a talent standpoint, and the Cowboys have no reason to take their foot off the gas, as they haven’t in many games this season where they were clearly the better team.

• A reasonable concern would be that Dallas has a short turnaround to a Thanksgiving Thursday matchup with the Washington Commanders. However, Dallas hosts these games every year and knows how to prepare properly. The Cowboys going up 49-10 on the New York Giants also enabled them to rest starters for the entire fourth quarter of Week 10, a welcome reprieve before this stretch of two games in five days.