• Bet Falcons -2.5: Buying into the team that’s not in a complete teardown to continue overachieving in an impressive season is the correct spot to target on Thursday night.
• PFF models point to a one-sided affair, but Atlanta's survival-mode win in Week 8 has led to a tight spread.
• Bet Panthers QB P.J. Walker u0.5 pass TDs: So bad he was benched a week ago by interim coach Steve Wilks, Walker begins Thursday on a short leash; sweating out this under the only way to enjoy this TNF matchup.
Last updated: Nov. 10, 4:30 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 4 mins
Let's break down what's likely to be a weather-impacted slugfest on “Thursday Night Football,” kicking off Week 10 with the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers.
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GAME LINES
The market seeing all the movement is the total, which printed a high of 44.5 two days ago. But weather concerns continue to push it down, sitting at 41.5 at most market-leading books heading toward kickoff.
Current reports point toward conditions devolving toward the end of the game, but expect light rain and 10+ MPH winds to start. The question: How quickly, and how extreme, will the wind and rain be?
• PFF Greenline showed an edge on the under at 42.5: But the most recent drop dried up any value, making this a spot to avoid given both sides have an argument at this low of a number.
• Spread modeling points toward this being a one-sided affair: With Atlanta providing value on both the spread and moneyline. Carolina has popped in a couple games since firing Matt Rhule, most recently in the overtime matchup against this Falcons squad, which is a big reason we are seeing such a tight spread.
• Next-to-no defense played in Week 8 matchup: Which is expected in a Falcons game, but not so much for a Panthers defensive unit that is still assumed to be at least league-average.
• The big discrepancy between the betting market and PFF modeling: As the Panthers have struggled against quality offensive teams, and the adverse weather conditions might boost a strong Falcons run game. Carolina no longer has the benefit of Christian McCaffrey, which can still impact an evaluation of the Panthers offense.
Given the state of their QB situation, and a short week impacting any sort of preparation, buying into the team that’s not in a complete teardown to continue overachieving in an impressive season is the correct spot to target on Thursday night.
Bet: Falcons -2.5 (-107), Atlanta moneyline (-135)
Bet Gameplan: ATS pick playable up to 2.5, moneyline up to -140.
PLAYER PROPS
Player props continue to be one of the best approaches to betting on the NFL. If interested in macro trends from the past three seasons, check out my midseason prop article here.
One way to consistently find defined edges without blindly betting unders is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for the NFL Thursday night game.
Bet: Panthers QB P.J. Walker — Under 0.5 Passing TDs (+186)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to +175
• A privilege is setting up before us on Thursday night: Not only is this a matchup between two teams PFF has power ranked at 27th (Atlanta) and 31st (Panthers),. but weather could easily take center stage before the night's over.
• Passing props have dropped dramatically, but PFF still finds some value on both quarterbacks throwing 0 TDs: The one that really sticks out is Walker, who was so bad he was benched in the second half for Baker Mayfield last week.
• Carolina also activated Sam Darnold this week, but it looks unlikely they will go with three active quarterbacks: Either way, Walker is on the shortest of leashes, as the Panthers absolutely have to find out what they have from all three quarterbacks over their remaining schedule. Facing multiple paths to a big change in projected volume, sweating out the under-passing touchdown prop is the only way to enjoy this Thursday-night matchup.
Bet: Panthers TE Tommy Tremble — Under 1.5 Receptions (-125)
Bet Gameplan: Playable up to -145
• It’s been an unimpressive start to the 2022 season for the second-year tight end out of Notre Dame: Tremble ranks 40th out of 41 tight ends with at least 100 snaps played in PFF receiving grade this season. On targets in his direction this season, Tremble has only a 58.8% completion percentage, with an aDot of 11.1.
• Shots that far downfield could be phased out quickly if the weather is as bad as most anticipate: And Tremble hasn’t shown the after-the-catch ability to be a worthwhile target underneath, especially with the Falcons defense stacking the box tonight. It’s tough to see Tremble getting over two targets tonight, and given that's the high end of his outcomes, he's a safe bet to go under 1.5 receptions, even with the relatively high juice.
Ben's primetime betting previews are 47-63 entering Week 10 (-3.8 units).
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