• RB Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders — over 25.5 receiving yards (-113 on FanDuel): Pittsburgh gave up a few big receptions to Breece Hall several weeks ago, and this is a spot where Washington may need to attack through the air.
• QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans — over 230.5 passing yards (-114 on FanDuel): The Detroit Lions are one of three defenses that face a pass on more than 68% of their defensive snaps, as offenses typically have to turn to the air to keep up with a Detroit offense on the other side that is putting up points seemingly at will.
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Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes
Key Insights were developed to help inform winning decisions, whether that’s betting a player prop or making a start/sit decision in fantasy football.
We’ve been tracking the results of logical bets associated with each insight, and in the spirit of transparency, the week-over-week results are included below.
| WEEK | WINS | LOSSES | WIN % |
| 1 | 8 | 19 | 30% |
| 2 | 25 | 19 | 57% |
| 3 | 19 | 28 | 40% |
| 4 | 20 | 13 | 61% |
| 5 | 16 | 16 | 50% |
| 6 | 28 | 27 | 51% |
| 7 | 31 | 20 | 61% |
| 8 | 32 | 21 | 60% |
| 9 | 44 | 30 | 59% |
| TOTAL | 179 | 163 | 52% |
After a few tough weeks early in the season, the insights have performed nicely once we switched to 2024 data and had a three-game sample to work from. Since Week 4, they’ve hit 57% of the time, averaging a 60% hit rate over the past three weeks.
We’ll look to carry over the momentum from a winning slate on the four featured bets in Week 9 (3-1), but the full list of key insights is included at the end of this article for you to browse if you prefer a different angle. All Key Insights can also now be found on PFF’s Player Profiles for players who have an associated insight.
- Season-to-date record for all Key Insights: 223-193 (53%)
- Key Insights record since Week 4 (3+ weeks of 2024 data): 171-127 (57%)
RB AUSTIN EKELER, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: OVER 25.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-113 on FanDuel)
KEY INSIGHT: “Austin Ekeler is a key receiving threat, and Pittsburgh has struggled with pass-catching RBs.”
Brian Robinson Jr. has already been ruled out for this contest with the hamstring injury that kept him out of Washington’s Week 9 victory over the New York Giants. In two games that Robinson hasn’t played, Ekeler has served as the lead running back and played 60% of the offensive snaps.
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