• Home Favorites vs Non-Conference Opponents 6-12-1 ATS in 2022: And despite winning five in a row in this spot, Kyle Shanahan is 8-17-1 ATS as a home favorite — trends suggesting it might be unwise to bet Niners -7 vs Chargers.
• The favorite is 23-14 ATS in International Games entering Sunday in Germany: Where the Bucs are -2.5 vs the Seahawks. But Seattle's Geno Smith has been profitable in this spot (7-3 ATS in past 10 on the road).
• Aaron Rodgers' Packers are 5-1 as home underdogs: But former coach Mike McCarthy is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite with the Cowboys, including covering five in a row.
Last updated: Nov. 8, 10:00 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 5 mins
Here's a sampling of obscure, and actionable trends in Week 10 marquee games:
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (+3, 43.5)
– Since 2019, the Road Team is 15-6 ATS in Thursday Night matchups between Divisional Opponents
– In Thursday-Night matchups between Divisional Opponents, Road Favorites have covered Four Straight
– In matchups between Divisional Opponents, Road Favorites are 6-11 ATS this season — these same games have gone 13-3-1 to the Under
• It has been very profitable to bet on Divisional Home Underdogs this season: Though current TNF trends suggest Atlanta is the play. The road teams' success in these spots has been extraordinary, and it is difficult to explain such a run.
– Since 2007, the Panthers are 4-0 to the Under as a Home Underdog in Primetime
– Since 2004, the Panthers are 12-4 to the Under in Home Primetime games vs the NFC
– Since 2006, the Panthers are 7-1 to the Under in Home Primetime games vs the NFC South
– Since 2014, the Panthers are 10-3 to the Under as a Home Underdog vs the NFC South
– Since 1999, the Panthers are 15-7-1 to the Under at Home vs Atlanta
• However compelling, these trends are extremely noisy, and likely unreliable: It is illogical to think that Carolina games dating back to the early 2000s could influence the total on Thursday. Although these trends are quite overwhelming and are fun to cite, they should not be the foundation of reason to bet the Under.
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, 44.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Germany)
– The Favorite is 23-14 ATS in International Games
• The favorites have crushed the spread in the NFL’s International Series: Perhaps the travel is more of a disadvantage to the underdog in these spots, although it is difficult to justify betting on Tampa Bay at this time.
– Pete Carroll is 17-9-1 to the Over as a Road Underdog without QB Russell Wilson
– In his past ten road starts, Geno Smith is 7-3 ATS, and 6-3-1 to the Over
• Dating back to his playing days in New York, Smith has been a profitable player to back on the road: Furthermore, he and HC Pete Carroll have hit the Over in these spots at a rather impressive rate.
– For his career, Tom Brady is 4-0 to the Over vs Seattle
– The Buccaneers are 4-0 to the Under on the road this season
• Brady’s 4-0 record to the Over vs Seattle is conversationally interesting: but not at all an actionable trend. Conversely, the Bucs’ perfect mark to the Under away from Raymond James Stadium perhaps is actionable.
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 46)
– Josh Allen is 8-1 SU, and 5-3-1 ATS at Home vs NFC Opponents
– Josh Allen is 5-0 SU, and 3-1-1 ATS as a 7+ point favorite at Home vs NFC Opponents
• Although the sample size is small, there is no fault in ever backing Josh Allen‘s Bills at home: However, Allen’s status for Week 10 is currently up in the air, and the spread on this game is in flux. If Allen plays, be comfortable backing the Bills as a favorite versus an unfamiliar foe.
– Kirk Cousins is 12-7 ATS as a Road Underdog at 1 PM
• Kirk Cousins has terrific record in this spot: Cousins’ primetime woes are well-documented, and perhaps bettors have been too quick to discard his chances in this scenario.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+5.5, 42.5)
– Aaron Rodgers is 5-1 ATS as a Home Underdog
• Rodgers has been excellent as a home underdog: And God bless those who choose to fade him in this spot. The Packers have been pitiful this season, but be less than inclined to bet against the team at Lambeau Field.
– Aaron Rodgers is 5-1 to the Under when hosting Dallas at Lambeau Field (Including Playoffs)
• Yet another noisy trend: Which should not be cited as reasoning to bet the Under.
– Mike McCarthy is 38-26 ATS as a Road Favorite, Covering 5 Straight
– Mike McCarthy is 6-2 ATS as a Road Favorite as Dallas’ HC, 6-2 to the Under in these games
– Dak Prescott is 19-12 ATS on the Road vs the NFC
• Both Dallas’ coach and quarterback have thrived throughout their career on the road: The sample size is large enough that it might influence some to bet on Dallas Sunday, although it directly contradicts the aforementioned Aaron Rodgers trend.
Los Angeles Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers (-7, 46.5)
– Kyle Shanahan is 2-5 ATS as a Home Favorite vs the AFC
– Kyle Shanahan is 8-17-1 ATS as a Home Favorite
• San Francisco HC Kyle Shanahan has been remarkably bad as a home favorite: However, it is worth noting that the 49ers have covered five straight in this spot (previously 3-17-1 ATS).
– Justin Herbert is 3-0 ATS as a Road Underdog of 6+ points
• Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert has an unblemished ATS record in this spot: But three games is hardly a large enough sample size to act on.
– Sunday-Night Home Favorites vs Non-Conference Opponents are on an 0-5 ATS Streak
– Home Favorites vs Non-Conference Opponents are 6-12-1 ATS this season
• These trends suggest it would be unwise to bet on the 49ers Sunday Night: Although it is confounding that non-conference underdogs have covered at such a rate. Overall, underdogs have been covering at a historic rate in 2022, and perhaps this trend is simply a function of that overarching trend.
– Since 2018, Sunday-Night Home Favorites are 3-8-1 ATS after their bye week
• The 49ers throttled the Rams in Week 8, and the team had a bye in Week 9.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-11, 44)
Eagles -11, Over / Under 44
– Since 2007, Double-Digit Home Favorites in NFC East Matchups are 4-8-1 ATS, these same games are 9-4 to the Over
– Since 2021, Double-Digit Home Favorites are 29-18-3 ATS
• NFC East matchups have been particularly contentious, and double-digit underdogs were a perfect 3-0 ATS in Week 9: However, double-digit home favorites have been chalk since 2021, and these conflicting trends suggest caution in betting either side.
– Since 2002, Philadelphia is 11-4-1 to the Under as a Home Favorite on Monday Night
– The Total has gone Under in Five Straight Home MNF Games for the Eagles
– Since 2000, Washington is 9-3 to the Under on the Road on Monday Night
– Since 2012, Washington is 7-3 to the Over on the Road in Philadelphia
• A myriad of noisy, coincidental trends having no bearing on the total of this game: Further, these Washington trends directly conflict with one another, and it is unwise to weight these streaks into any bet made Monday night.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.