• Bet the rested Lions (-1.5) to take down the Chargers: The Lions' offense excels at throwing over the middle of the field, while the Chargers' defense ranks dead last in EPA allowed per pass on such plays.
• Bet the Commanders (+6) to keep things close with the Seahawks: Over the past four weeks, Geno Smith and Sam Howell have nearly identical PFF grades, and Howell leads the league in big-time throws over that period.
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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
If you are betting on NFL spreads, you better do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, we are here to share our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move.
We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 14-14 (-1.1 units) this season. Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord.
If you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.
Detroit Lions (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers
• The Detroit Lions are coming off a bye in this matchup, while the Chargers are going to be coming off a short week and flying across the country from New Jersey following their Monday night matchup with the Jets. The Lions' offense has done well this season, scoring 20-plus points in every single game except for one overly poor outing against the Ravens.
• The Lions' offense also excels at throwing over the middle of the field, ranking eighth in expected points added per pass and fifth in success rate on such plays. The Chargers' defense ranks dead last in EPA allowed per pass and third worst in success rate when teams throw over the middle of the field against them.
• The Chargers are also extremely banged up at wide receiver, with Josh Palmer being placed on injured reserve this weekend. This leaves a very young and inexperienced wide receiver room after Keenan Allen, which likely will lead to the Chargers struggling to move the ball through the air. And they’ve faltered in the ground game, sporting a league-worst 23.8% rushing success rate since Week 2.
Teaser: Minnesota Vikings (+8.5) vs. New Orleans Saints with Tennessee Titans (+7.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-120)
• This is a Wong Teaser, which happens when each side you tease crosses both the numbers three and seven, as is the case here with the Vikings moving from +2.5 to +8.5 and the Titans moving from +1.5 to +7.5. Because three and seven are the most common end-of-game point differentials, crossing those numbers gives the bettor more outcomes for which each side wins.
• The Saints won the turnover battle with the Chicago Bears, five to zero, in Week 9, and Bears kicker Cairo Santos hit a 40-yard field goal off the upright. The Saints needed all of this help to win a 24-17 game against an undrafted rookie quarterback who accounted for four of those turnovers but also threw for 7.3 yards per attempt and two touchdowns on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the league. Josh Dobbs is new to Minnesota and was learning the cadence on the sideline, but by next Sunday, he will be a clear upgrade over Tyson Bagent and playing at home against a Saints offense that averaged 4.9 yards per play this week.
• Will Levis played on a short week against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second start of his NFL career, and he went 5-of-8 for 114 yards with two big-time throws on passes 10-plus yards downfield. Three turnover-worthy plays on the final drive tanked what was an otherwise extremely encouraging performance, and this Buccaneers defense just let a rookie throw for 470 yards and five touchdowns with three drops. Tennessee’s offensive line is banged up, but the Buccaneers' pass-rush unit ranks 27th in pass-rush win rate and pressure rate, whereas Pittsburgh ranks in the top 10 in both.
Washington Commanders (+6, -110) @ Seattle Seahawks
• What if we told you that the better quarterback in this game is getting six points? Over the past four weeks, Geno Smith and Sam Howell have nearly identical PFF grades, and Howell leads the league in big-time throws over that period.
• The Seahawks' weakness on offense is the interior offensive line, whereas the strength of the Commanders' defense is on the interior with Jonathan Allen (24th in PFF pass-rush grade). The Commanders also have had strong play from cornerback Kendall Fuller, who ranks second in the NFL in PFF grade. Washington should prevent the Seahawks from being able to throw it wherever they want, slowing down the offense enough to keep this one close.
• Seattle’s defense ranks just 19th in pressure rate this season, which will help Howell remain upright and take advantage of his arm talent and strong receiving options.
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