• An area of weakness for the Detroit Lions: The Lions have struggled to defend the deep pass and prevent explosive plays this season. Dan Campbell's team has surrendered the league's highest average target depth and given up explosive plays of 15 or more yards at the league's highest rate.
• An area of strength for Matthew Stafford: Stafford has been a dominant deep passer throughout his career. The veteran quarterback ranks in the top five in EPA on deep passes and sits within the very top cluster of deep ball accuracy.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”
However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.
Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (+340)
• First, let's establish the base expectations by looking at how well these teams have “earned points” by sustainably moving the ball on offense and preventing opponents from doing the same (EDP). The chart above shows the data from the regular season but has recent games weighted more heavily.
• The Lions have been slightly better on offense, though a large gap presents itself on defense. The Rams have sneakily been league-average on defense and have held some of their best offensive opponents — most notably the Ravens — below their rolling average of offensive efficiency.
• If we look more granularly for the most relevant sample for this game, we see that the Rams offense has been fairly dominant and consistent since Matthew Stafford returned from injury in Week 11.
• And while on-field/off-field splits are generally noisy, it is difficult to ignore the fact that this team ranks first in expected points added (EPA), success rate, points per drive and virtually any other category of offensive efficiency when Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have all been healthy.
• So, there is good reason to think that the Rams have not only a superior defense but also a better offense.
Matchup Angle
• The Lions have struggled to defend the deep pass and prevent explosive plays this season. Dan Campbell's team has surrendered the league's highest average target depth and given up explosive plays of 15 or more yards at the league's highest rate.
• Over the last six weeks, they have given up a league-high 14.6% explosive pass play rate, 3% higher than the next closest team. Opposing teams are throwing 10 yards downfield against them on average.
• This plays right into the strength of Matthew Stafford, who has been a dominant deep passer throughout his career. The veteran quarterback ranks in the top five in EPA on deep passes and sits within the very top cluster of deep ball accuracy.
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