NFL Super Bowl 58 Betting: Best spread, prop bets before lines move

• Take the Chiefs to record the first sack (-120): Patrick Mahomes' ability to avoid sacks and Kansas City's dominance on scripted plays this postseason give the Chiefs the upper hand here.

• Bet on Brock Purdy to top his rushing line (12.5 yards, -110): There will be open rushing lanes and defensive backs and second-level defenders with their backs turned to Purdy in trail technique, and he should be able to take advantage.

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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

If you are betting on NFL spreads, it's best to do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, here are our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move ahead of Super Bowl 58.

We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 32-27 (+3.3) this season.

Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord. And if you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.

Kansas City Chiefs +100 (FanDuel)

• Stop us if you’ve heard this before: Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback on the planet by a light year, is an underdog.

• Mahomes sports a 92.0 PFF grade in his playoff career, by far the best mark of any quarterback since 2018.

• Additionally, the 49ers' defense was carved up by Jared Goff and the Lions, and had it not been for Josh Reynolds‘ crucial drops, there might even be a different NFC representative.

Highest-Graded QBs | Playoffs (Through Divisional Round)

Travis Kelce Props (one for each level of risk tolerance)

Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110, FanDuel)

• Travis Kelce looks like the Kelce of old after sitting out Week 18 and getting fresh for the playoffs, perhaps giving himself some extra time to get healthy after playing through a knee injury at the beginning of the season. After Kelce’s 11-reception, 116-yard outing against a Baltimore Ravens defense that, on paper, was the toughest matchup he’d face all year, he’s now gone 12 straight playoff games — every game from 2020 through this year’s conference championship game — with at least 70 receiving yards.

• The 49ers generally cover tight ends well, but Sam LaPorta had nine receptions for 97 yards and routinely found space underneath in the NFC championship game. Kelce has always feasted against zone defenses like the 49ers often present on the backend, with a healthy dose of Cover 3 opening up the seams. This line is simply too low for Kelce, given the expected volume here.

Lead the game in receiving yards (+370, DraftKings)

• Given how much the 49ers spread the ball around and how concentrated the Chiefs' targets are, this is a great value.

• Kelce has earned a 30% target share in the playoffs, considerably higher than any 49ers receiver and a hair above Rashee Rice. In the most important game of the year, we would only expect Kelce to see even more looks.

MVP (23-to-1, FanDuel)

• Considering the above and the Taylor Swift storyline, this just feels a little too perfect to be 23-to-1 odds.

Chiefs to record first sack of the game (-120)

• Much has been said about Patrick Mahomes‘ ability to avoid sacks, and we want to bet on that in this game. While there aren’t any props up involving sacks taken for Mahomes, we can bet the Chiefs to record the first sack.

• Looking at the data, Kansas City has recorded the first sack in 13 of 20 games (65%), while the 49ers have recorded the first sack in only 10 of 19 games (53%). The 49ers have worse odds here at -125, though they’ve done it less often throughout the season.

• Part of the reason the 49ers are more favored here is probably the strength of their defensive line and the number of big names on the unit. However, the Chiefs have been dialing up the blitzes in the playoffs and are generating pressure and sacks from them. The 49ers have also gotten out to slow starts in both playoff games, while the Chiefs' scripted plays have been very good over the past couple of weeks.

Brock Purdy over 12.5 rushing yards (-110)

• Purdy has exceeded this line in both playoff games thus far, more notably sailing over this number to the tune of 48 rushing yards in the NFC championship game against a Lions defense that likes to send extra pass rushers and play man coverage behind it, which is what Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo likes to lean on. There will be open rushing lanes and defensive backs and second-level defenders with their backs turned to Purdy in trail technique, and he should be able to take advantage.

• Some people foolishly forget that Brock “Lamar Jackson” Montana has a 90th percentile 10-yard split. He may not scamper for a 60-yard touchdown, but he will rack up a handful of five-plus-yard scrambles throughout the game that will get us over this number.