Despite the injury to the league’s most valuable player (long-term, at least), our futures gained substantial value last week, with our only exposure now being the Buffalo Bills as they head to Kansas City to face the Chiefs.
At this point, betting futures doesn't offer the value it did at the beginning of the season. Hopefully, you have some +EV bets remaining. However, much like we wrote about going into week 17, there are some bets you can make that will hedge futures in many cases. Generally speaking, you should only hedge a bet if the second bet is +EV. That said, there might be reasonable instances where you’re trying to trade positive expected value for variance.
Thus, given our current exposure (see below), we talk about possible bets to make this week and how it impacts your expected return. If you want our simulation’s predictions for the playoffs, please read Tuesday's article: 2020 NFL Playoffs: A statistical view of the four remaining teams. Enjoy!
[Editor's note: Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app and use promo code PFF when you sign up to turn $1 into $100 if any QB scores a rushing or receiving touchdown this weekend! Click here to play at DraftKings Sportsbook.]
Resolved Regular-Season Futures Bets
- Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC West: +190 after Week 1 (Win)
- Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South: +125 after Week 1 (Win)
- Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North: -140 after Week 2 (Win)
- Philadelphia Eagles to miss the playoffs: -170 after Week 2 (Win)
- Arizona Cardinals to make the playoffs: +104 after Week 2 (Loss)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC South: +100 after Week 3 (Loss)
- New England Patriots to win the AFC East: +125 after Week 3 (Loss)
- Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs: -182 after Week 4 (Win)
- Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East: -125 after Week 5 (Loss)
- Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North: -165 after Week 6 (Loss)
- Washington Football Team to win the NFC East: +425 after Week 7 (Win)
- Miami Dolphins to make the playoffs: +184 after Week 8 (Loss)
- Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs: +114 after Week 9 (Loss)
- Philadelphia Eagles to miss the playoffs: +154 after Week 10 (Win)
- Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs: -245 after Week 11 (Win)
- Minnesota Vikings to miss the playoffs: -270 after Week 12 (Win)
- Washington Football Team to win the NFC East: +160 after Week 13 (Win)
- Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC South: +125 after Week 15 (Loss)
- Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl: +1400 after Week 1 (Loss)
10-9 record, +5.64 units
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