• Back the Chiefs to win but for James Cook to have a day: The Chiefs have struggled to defend the run this season and notably rank toward the bottom of the league in most efficiency metrics, including expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and yards allowed per rush.
• Bet on Josh Reynolds to continue his emergence: Reynolds should be lining up against Carlton Davis, who ranks 80th among 128 qualifying cornerbacks in PFF grade. Davis has been targeted by opposing offenses 23% of the time, one of the highest marks in the league, so there should be plenty of volume for the Lions pass-catcher.
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Story: Kansas City Chiefs overcome strong Buffalo Bills running game en route to a divisional-round win
• The Chiefs have struggled to defend the run this season and notably rank toward the bottom of the league in most efficiency metrics, including expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush and yards allowed per rush.
• Most concerning, though, is that Kansas City ranks dead last among teams when it comes to allowing perfectly blocked runs — the type of plays that lead to explosive rushes.
• Bills running back James Cook has been one of the NFL's best from an efficiency standpoint and is firmly in the top right of the above graph that shows EPA per rush and rushing yards over expectation.
• Cook has racked up the second-most explosive runs of 10-plus yards on the season and is always a threat to break a big run.
• Since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, the Bills have run the ball at one of the highest rates in the league, running 5% above expectation, meaning that volume will be on Cook's side.
• The inverse correlation between Cook's rushing yards and a Chiefs victory elevates this SGP. While books usually price in a strong correlation between rushing yards and a team winning, Cook still has many paths to a strong game without the Bills winning, both via explosive rushes and the Bills maintaining a strong run game throughout before losing late in what is expected to be a very close game.
PointsBet SGP Build: 20-1
- RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills: 80+ rushing yards
- Kansas City Chiefs: -6.5
Story: Josh Reynolds Continues his emergence as the Detroit Lions’ WR2
• Reynolds has quietly put together a terrific season for the Lions, with his underlying metrics suggesting that he is one of the game's most underrated receivers.
• The seventh-year pro has been well above average when it comes to separating, and he's been one of the best in the game at the catch point and after the catch.
• With Kalif Raymond out with injury, Reynolds has emerged as Detroit's clear No. 2 receiver. He's played close to 90% of the snaps over the past two weeks en route to a robust 23.7% target share.
• Reynolds should be lining up against Carlton Davis, who ranks 80th among 128 qualifying cornerbacks in PFF grade. Davis has been targeted by opposing offenses 23% of the time, one of the highest marks in the league, so there should be plenty of volume for the Lions pass-catcher.
• Reynolds also possesses a deep role in the offense and boasts the second-highest average target depth among his teammates. This is especially relevant in a matchup with a Tampa defense that has allowed the fifth-highest rate of explosive plays.
PointsBet SGP Build: 28-1
- WR Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions: 95+ receiving yards
- WR Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions: Anytime TD
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