• An equal playing field: The Packers have gotten much healthier over the last three weeks and now have a full complement of weapons at their disposal. The ceiling for the Packers offense — the tails we are betting on — is undeniable and on par with the Niners.
• Green Bay's path is clear: The Niners have relied upon playing from a positive game script all season. Yes, it may be a relatively small sample, but when the team has a win probability of less than 30%, the offense has fallen way short of its usual standard.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”
However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.
Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.
BEST BETS FOR THE DIVISIONAL ROUND
• Green Bay Packers: -2.5 (+400)
• QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers 325+ passing yards & Green Bay Packers -5.5 (+5500)
• CLICK HERE TO PLACE THESE BETS!
• First, let's establish the base expectations by looking at how well these teams have “earned points” by sustainably moving the ball on offense and preventing opponents from doing the same (EDP). The chart above shows the data from the regular season but has recent games weighted more heavily.
• These two teams are about equal on defense, though San Francisco fields an offense nearly 0.6 points better per drive. The Niners, certainly on offense, are widely known as one of the very best (and most stable) units in the NFL.
• However, there are reasons to believe these teams might be even closer on offense. There are also reasons to believe that Green Bay can match the 49ers score for score in a shootout.
• The Packers have played as well as anyone in the league over the last three weeks. And while that's certainly a small sample, we rarely see average teams averaging over 3.0 EDP per drive, as the Packers have in this span.
• The Packers have also gotten much healthier over the last three weeks and now have a full complement of weapons at their disposal. The ceiling for the Packers offense — the tails we are betting on — is undeniable and on par with the Niners.
• There is also reason to think the Packers' offensive scheme is well-suited to take advantage of the Niners defense.
• Much like the Dallas Cowboys — the team Green Bay saw off quite easily last week — the 49ers have been tremendous at generating quick pressure, doing so at a top-five rate in the NFL.
• But the Packers are well-suited to mitigate this. They have allowed the fewest quick pressures in the NFL and even stymied the dominant Dallas pass rush in the wild-card round.
• Further, the Niners have relied upon playing from a positive game script all season. Yes, it may be a relatively small sample, but when the team has a win probability of less than 30%, the offense has fallen way short of its usual standard.
• This leaves more uncertainty around San Francisco's offensive strength and the possibility that Kyle Shanahan's team won't be as strong as the market prices should the Packers take an early lead.
• That said, the Packers offense has still enjoyed success recently, leaving them with multiple paths to win this game, no matter the game script.
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