• Target the over on Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving yards line (91.5): Since Week 15, St. Brown has amassed 3.43 yards per route run and 31 combined first-down and touchdown receptions while producing the highest receiving grade in the league (92.9).
• Look for the Packers' Jordan Love to feed Jayden Reed: Take the over on Reed's receiving yards line (42.5), despite the rookie not seeing a target in the wild-card round.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
The divisional round of the 2023-24 NFL playoffs brings high-powered, high-leverage matchups, featuring some incredible talents. Each game on the slate has one or more key matchups that will be crucial to deciding which teams move on to the conference championships.
These are the receiver-cornerback matchups to watch in the divisional round, both for bettors and general fans of the game.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens: WR Zay Flowers vs. CB Derek Stingley Jr.
The Texans cornerback has been phenomenal since returning from injury in Week 10, amassing five picks — tied for the most at the position over that span — and an impressive 23.7% forced incompletion rate. Stingley is the cornerstone of this Houston secondary, a unit that runs the fifth-highest rate of Cover 4 (22.6%) in the league. In quarters coverage, Stingley earned a 91.2 coverage grade, the highest among qualifying cornerbacks.
The electric Flowers is difficult to bring down in open space, tallying 19 forced missed tackles on receptions, the seventh most at the position. The Texans, however, are sure tacklers in coverage, possessing a top-10 missed tackle rate on passing downs, with Stingley whiffing just four times in 12 games.
While 51.5 receiving yards isn’t an incredibly lofty line for Flowers, this Texans defense swarms the ball, which will make extra yardage after contact hard to come by.
Lean: Zay Flowers under 51.5 receiving yards
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers: WR Jayden Reed vs. CB Deommodore Lenoir
The Packers' offensive game plan will surely be dependent on manufactured coverage matchups, particularly in the slot. While Lenoir is a versatile cornerback, often deployed in the slot, his coverage grading drops by more than 12 grading points, to 61.7, when moving inside. Since Week 10, the Niners cornerback has allowed six receptions of 15-plus yards when lined up in the slot, the fifth most in the NFL.
Reed may have gone without a catchable target in the wild-card round, but Packers quarterback Jordan Love will look to get the first-year receiver involved earlier to take advantage of this matchup. When lined up in the slot, Reed has generated a 126.0 passer rating when targeted, due in large part to racking up 16 receptions of 15-plus yards, second to only CeeDee Lamb.
At 42.5 yards, Reed’s receiving yards line this week looks fairly attainable. Before the wild-card round, the Packers receiver more than doubled this line in two straight games.
Lean: Jayden Reed over 42.5 receiving yards
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. CB Christian Izien
St. Brown had an incredible outing in the wild-card round, but that barely scratches the surface of an incredible stretch from the Lions receiver. Since Week 15, St. Brown has amassed 3.43 yards per route run and 31 combined first-down and touchdown receptions while producing the highest receiving grade in the league (92.9).
Holding down St. Brown will be a collaborative effort, but when he's in the slot, that duty will fall to Izien. The first-year cornerback played well to close out the season, having allowed just seven receiving yards into his coverage since Week 16 and earning a league-leading 90.0 coverage grade in the slot.
As impressive a stretch as that is for an Izien, matching up with an All-Pro like St. Brown will be another challenge entirely for the undrafted rookie.
Lean: Amon-Ra St. Brown over 91.5 receiving yards
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills: WR Stefon Diggs vs. CB Trent McDuffie
While Diggs is known to travel throughout the formation, he spends significant time in the slot, which means he will cross paths with McDuffie. The Chiefs cornerback possesses a league-leading 90.0 coverage grade when lined up in the slot. McDuffie allowed just 0.40 yards per coverage snap and tacked on a pair of forced incompletions when lined up inside in the wild-card round.
The Bills involved Diggs early using the screen game in the wild-card round, due in part to frigid temperatures, to which he produced success in the form of 7.0 yards after the catch per reception. However, McDuffie excels at covering screen passes, allowing just 4.8 yards per reception.
Given the difficult matchup and inclement weather, with more snow forecasted in Buffalo, Diggs’ 65.5 receiving yards line seems a bit high. He has exceeded that number just twice since Week 10.
Lean: Stefon Diggs under 65.5 receiving yards
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