• Bet on Patrick Mahomes (o24.5 rush yards) and Josh Allen (o40.5) to utilize their legs: We're taking the over on both quarterbacks' rushing props due to their recent ground-game production and the expected game state.
• Bet on the Buccaneers and Lions to put up points (o48.5): The Buccaneers will likely heavily target Mike Evans in this game, and Jared Goff should fare better against Tampa Bay's blitz than Philadelphia did.
• $150 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $150 in bonus bets if their team wins. Join FanDuel today!
Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
If you are betting on NFL spreads, it's best to do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, here are our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move ahead of the NFL playoffs' divisional round.
We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 27-25 (+0.5 units) this season.
Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord. And if you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.
George Kittle Over 51.5 Receiving Yards
• The Packers have PFF's lowest coverage grade on targets to opposing tight ends (43.9) and also rank in the bottom 10 in EPA allowed per dropback on targets to the position. Green Bay places in the bottom five in yards per coverage target, explosive reception rate allowed and missed tackle rate.
• The total for the game is 50 at most books, the highest number for a 49ers game this season. Kittle sat out in Week 18 and San Francisco received a first-round bye, so he’ll be the freshest he’s ever been in the playoffs, which is particularly important for a tight end who blocks as fervently as any in the game.
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 48.5 Total Points
• PFF data scientist Timo Riske computed a noise-canceled score for each game, a metric more predictive of a team's true offense output. In the Lions-Rams game, his algorithm settled on a 30-26 score.
• Tampa Bay will have plenty of opportunities on the outside in this game, and Mike Evans has a particularly great matchup against the 5-foot-11 Cam Sutton and his 55.6 PFF grade and the 5-foot-11 Kindle Vildor and his 110th-ranked PFF coverage grade. If the number were posted at the time of writing, we would be targeting a Mike Evans prop.
• Lastly, the Buccaneers may have kept the Eagles' offense at bay with their incessant blitzing, but Jared Goff is averaging 7.5 yards per attempt against the blitz this season, ranking seventh.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards
• Patrick Mahomes and rushing-yard overs in competitive games — especially in the playoffs — have become almost an auto-bet at this point. He tallied 48 yards on only two scrambles against the Dolphins, and with how well the Bills' coverage unit has been playing, he may have to resort to using his legs to move the ball.
• The Bills' defense has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year and is also extremely banged up at the linebacker position. While nearly all of Mahomes’ rush yards come through scrambles and not designed runs, mistakes from Buffalo's backup linebackers could create open lanes for Mahomes to take off.
Josh Allen OVER 40.5 Rushing Yards
• This is Josh Allen’s Super Bowl. If not now, then when? With L'Jarius Sneed and the stout Chiefs secondary locking in on Stefon Diggs, Allen will have to turn to his legs both as a scrambler and a designed runner.
• In his past three games, Allen has rushed 12, 15 and eight times, respectively, and he topped 67 yards in each of the past two. While he made it to only 34 yards in the first matchup against the Chiefs in Kansas City, it was on 10 attempts.
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