• How the teams stack up on the surface: For the season, the Chiefs and Ravens look fairly similar on offense, though the Ravens have a slight advantage on defense.
• A deeper look: In their divisional-round game against Buffalo — against a Bills defense that had been surging to that point — the Chiefs posted their highest explosive play rate of the last three years. Patrick Mahomes and company are seemingly rounding into form and looking more like the dominant Chiefs offenses of the past. This would, of course, mean that they are mispriced as 4-point underdogs.
• $150 in bonus bets: Place your first $5 bet to get $150 in bonus bets — win or lose! Join FanDuel today!
Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Many bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” or “Which totals stand out this week?”
However, the goal in this space is to follow a top-down approach. We will take a deep dive into one game a week and consider how bettors can best apply a specific theory on a team, player or trend and capitalize on it in the betting market.
Some bets will track more traditional markets, but we will more often look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks.
Bet: QB Patrick Mahomes over 304.5 passing yards & Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (+2500)
• First, let's establish the base expectations by looking at how well these teams have “earned points” by sustainably moving the ball on offense and preventing opponents from doing the same (EDP). For the season, the Chiefs and Ravens look fairly similar on offense, though the Ravens have a slight advantage on defense.
• However, the Chiefs can make the case that their more recent form leaves them as a superior offense and one that looks far more like the 95th-percentile outfit we’ve been accustomed to seeing in the Patrick Mahomes era.
• For the season, the Chiefs have been merely average at generating explosive plays and drives, which is a stark difference from last season when they led the entire NFL in that very same metric.
• But in their divisional-round game against Buffalo — against a Bills defense that had been surging to that point — the Chiefs posted their highest explosive play rate of the last three years. In fact, it was the third straight game with a 10%-plus explosive play rate.
• The Chiefs are seemingly rounding into form and looking more like the dominant Chiefs offenses of the past. This would, of course, mean that they are mispriced as 4-point underdogs.
Matchup Angle
• Mike Mcdonald's defense has been the very best in the league at generating pressure this season. The group has been especially good at creating “simulated pressures,” which has given them a huge advantage over opposing offenses.
• The team has been far less dominant when it comes to generating quick pressure (pressure in less than 2.5 seconds), ranking right in the middle of the pack in this metric.
• Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense has been one of the best teams at preventing quick pressure.
• Mahomes' ability to scramble and extend plays — he is by far the best quarterback of his generation when it comes to avoiding sacks — mitigates much of the advantage the Ravens' pass rush presents.
• There is only so much a QB and offense can do when an opposing pass-rusher beats his block and gets to the passer for a sack in less than 1.5 seconds. But that's not the kind of threat the Ravens defense poses. Instead, Patrick Mahomes will have to diagnose pressure and scramble to manipulate the pocket during the play, and that is something he has excelled at his entire career.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.