• Bet on Brandon Aiyuk (over 80.5 receiving yards) to have a big day against the Lions' secondary: Cameron Sutton and Kindle Vildor have combined to allow 13 receptions of 15 or more yards in the playoffs, more than twice that of any other cornerback tandem.
• Look for Kyle Hamilton to lock down Rashee Rice (under 59.5 receiving yards): The Chiefs like to use Rice on screens, but Baltimore has been particularly good against those plays this season.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
The conference championship games bring high-powered and high-leverage matchups, featuring some incredible talents in the passing game. Each game on the slate has one or more key matchups that will be crucial in deciding which teams move on to the Super Bowl.
These are the wide receiver-cornerback matchups to watch this weekend when the Kansas City Chiefs play the Baltimore Ravens and when the Detroit Lions play the San Francisco 49ers.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens: WR Rashee Rice vs. S Kyle Hamilton
The fight for the AFC features a must-watch slot matchup between PFF All-Pro Kyle Hamilton and PFF top-five-graded rookie Rashee Rice.
While not as explosive in 2023, Andy Reid’s offense continues to show off its creativity, particularly when deploying Rice. The first-year receiver is electric with the ball in his hands, totaling 8.5 yards after catch per reception, the second-highest rate at the position. The screen game is a large part of Rice’s regular use in Chiefs gameplans, and he finished behind only Tyreek Hill in targets (26) on screens by a receiver this season. When targeted on receiver screens, Rice has racked up over 6.71 yards per route run and nine first-down and touchdown receptions, leading to a league-leading 94.0 receiving grade on targeted receiver screens.
That type of traffic in the slot will undoubtedly draw the attention of versatile safety Kyle Hamilton. The second-year AP All-Pro stands as one of the most effective slot defenders in the league, earning the fifth-highest coverage grade (85.5) when lined up inside. From the slot, Hamilton has surrendered just 0.45 yards per coverage snap and limited passers to a 66.0 passer rating in coverage, both of which rank among the league’s best marks.
Led by Hamilton, this Ravens coverage unit swarms screens and other underneath concepts. On passes targeted five or fewer yards downfield, the Ravens allow just 4.70 yards per snap, the best rate in the NFL.
Lean: Rashee Rice under 59.5 receiving yards
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers: WR Brandon Aiyuk vs. CBs Cameron Sutton & Kindle Vildor
Brandon Aiyuk, PFF’s second-highest-graded receiver and a PFF All-Pro, is poised for a big day in the NFC title game, staring down a favorable matchup with the Detroit secondary.
The Lions' defense maintains an aggressive coverage philosophy that can, at times, put their cornerbacks in tough positions. Detroit deploys a press-heavy scheme, running a majority of closed coverages. The unit possesses the sixth-highest rate of playing press coverage with a single-high safety (66.8%). In those looks, the Lions have allowed the third-worst EPA per dropback figure while giving up a substantial number of explosive receptions (48). Much of that falls to the cornerbacks, as Sutton and Vildor have struggled to prevent chunk yardage. In the playoffs, the pair has allowed a combined 13 receptions of 15 or more yards, more than twice that of any other cornerback tandem this postseason.
Aiyuk, on the other hand, has proven to be one of the league’s most productive downfield threats. The Niners All-Pro has secured the fourth-most receptions over 15 yards (43), all while maintaining a 17.6 yards per reception average, which ranks fourth in the NFL. On passes targeted past 15 yards, Aiyuk has secured 29 receptions and generated a 139.2 passer rating, both of which rank in the top three at the position.
According to PFF’s WR/CB matchup tool, Aiyuk possesses the best matchup advantage of the conference championship round.
Lean: Brandon Aiyuk over 80.5 receiving yards
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