• Bet Patrick Mahomes to win MVP (+450): The past five MVPs, including Mahomes, led the NFL in expected points added (EPA). He currently ranks second behind Bills QB Josh Allen — after losing star wideout Tyreek Hill.
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Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Futures Bet: Kansas Chiefs Chiefs to Win Division Title (-185)
• The Chiefs are easily the best team in the AFC West: Right now, the Chiefs rank first in the NFL in EPA per play generated on offense and 13th in EPA allowed on defense. The Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers are both average on offense and slightly below average on defense. The Denver Broncos are below-average on offense and good on defense. The Chiefs being multiple tiers ahead of the rest of their division is a big advantage for them.
• PFF’s power rankings tool has the Chiefs with a 68% to win the division. The odds being at -175 implies a 63% chance, so there’s a 5% edge to bet on the Chiefs.
MVP Bet: Patrick Mahomes to Win MVP (+450)
• Mahomes is second in the league in EPA: The past five NFL MVPs have led the league in total expected points added (EPA). Currently, Patrick Mahomes is second, trailing only Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Mahomes has never finished outside of the top three in his career in total EPA, so we can expect that to repeat this season, and passing Allen would put him in the driver’s seat to win the award.
• The narrative is there: Last season the narrative about Mahomes and the Chiefs offense was how they were struggling against two-high structures. This offseason, it was about whether the Chiefs were going to be able to produce without wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The resilience story so far is there for Mahomes to take home Most Valuable Player.
CFB WEEK 6 Bet: Missouri +11.5 at Florida (-115)
• PFF's predictive models give +1.8% value for Missouri +11.5 against Florida on Saturday. Missouri is 3-2 ATS this year following a close loss to Georgia this past week.
CFB WEEK 6 Bet: Kansas moneyline vs. TCU (+200)
• PFF's predictive models give +1.5% value for Kansas Moneyline at +200, estimating a 33.7% chance to win for Kansas while +200 implies a 31.3% chance.
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