• 2023 conference champions have strangleholds on their respective divisions: The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers hold commanding positions over their divisions, with oddsmakers projecting more than a 70% implied probability for each to be crowned division champs in 2024.

• Atlanta in pole position to take the NFC South: The Atlanta Falcons inked their new franchise signal-caller, Kirk Cousins, to a massive four-year, $180 million contract, catapulting Atlanta to the top of the division.

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The initial rush of NFL free agency has subsided, and as the dust settles, it’s time to evaluate the division futures market again before the NFL draft in April and see how oddsmakers view the NFL landscape.

(Editor's note: All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

AFC

AFC North

• Baltimore Ravens: +110 (48% implied probability)
• Cincinnati Bengals: +175 (36%)
• Cleveland Browns: +550 (15%)
• Pittsburgh Steelers: +950 (10%)

Despite some household names finding new homes in the north, including the Steelers acquiring Russell Wilson, oddsmakers have yet to adjust this market significantly since its opening. Pittsburgh and Cleveland hold longer odds this offseason than they did at this point in 2023 despite appearing to have bolstered their rosters in key spots.  

Joe Burrow‘s return to the Bengals’ lineup places Cincinnati (36% implied probability) as the greatest threat to Baltimore’s reign atop the AFC North in the eyes of oddsmakers. Albeit, that remains a steep challenge as the Ravens seemingly bolstered their presence on the ground with the Derrick Henry signing. The Henry and Lamar Jackson pairing is sure to cause defensive coordinators around the league sleepless nights.

AFC East

• Buffalo Bills: +130 (43%)
• Miami Dolphins: +210 (32%)
• New York Jets: +260 (28%)
• New England Patriots: +1700 (6%)

With Bill Belichick's departure from New England,and the presumed rebuild to follow – potentially headlined by a top-three selection at quarterback – this is a three-team race for the AFC East in the oddsmakers' eyes. 

While Miami (+210) and New York (+260) hold similarly priced odds, Buffalo received the shortest odds despite parting with key leaders and former defensive captains, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Josh Allen remains an elite talent leading this team, yet, Poyer and Hyde losses cannot be discounted to a top-10 defense in EPA per play allowed last season.    

By contrast, the Jets made a number of key offensive acquisitions to help supplement a healthy Aaron Rodgers‘ return under center, bolstering the line with the Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses acquistions, as well as adding big-bodied receiving threat Mike Williams on the outside. Yet, New York finds itself with the second-longest odds to take home the East crown.

AFC South

• Houston Texans: +150 (40%)
• Jacksonville Jaguars: +250 (29%)
• Indianapolis Colts +280 (26%)
• Tennessee Titans: +600 (14%)

The AFC South has undergone a seismic odds shift when compared to the 2023 offseason, as the Texans became the team to beat in DeMeco Ryans’ first year at the helm. Hoping to build off that success, Houston spent over $65 million in guarantees in the opening week of free agency to add and retain talented players, highlighted by Danielle Hunter and Joe Mixon acquisitions.  

With the Titans undergoing a foundational rebuild, oddsmakers see the Jags and Colts with a similar probability to push the Texans. While Jacksonville may have lost Calvin Ridley, the Jaguars managed to fill voids with quality contributors on both sides of the ball, including Gabe Davis and Arik Armstead, adding playoff experience to a roster sorely lacking it in the divisional round this past season. 

AFC West

• Kansas City Chiefs: -250 (71%)
• Los Angeles Chargers: +370 (21%)
• Las Vegas Raiders: +1000 (9%)
• Denver Broncos: +1700 (6%)

Kansas City will look to continue its dominance over the AFC West after eight-straight divisional crowns, and oddsmakers seem to agree, placing the Chiefs with the shortest odds (71% implied probability) of any team in the NFL to win their division. The Chiefs managed what many thought would be impossible in retaining the services of both defensive tackle Chris Jones and corner L’Jarius Sneed while also supplementing their receiving corps with the Marquise Brown addition. A power move in the AFC. 

Unfortunately for the rest of the division, prospects look unfavorable after a tumultuous start to the offseason. The Broncos parting ways with Russell Wilson – and eating a substantial cap hit – opens the door for a rookie under-center and little room to maneuver. Even further up the board, the Chargers are dealing with the financial fallout of their cap situation, resulting in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams‘ departures. The Raiders open up the competition at quarterback. None of which look poised to topple the Chiefs.

NFC

NFC North

• Detroit Lions: +130 (43%)
• Green Bay Packers: +210 (32%)
• Chicago Bears: +350 (22%)
• Minnesota Vikings: +750 (12%)

Kirk Cousins‘ departure from Minnesota crushed what divisional aspirations the Vikings may have had, but otherwise, the NFC North poses as potentially one of the more intriguing divisional races in the league. While the Lions were just a half of football from going to their first Super Bowl, they face stiffer competition heading into 2024.

The Bears and Packers may be able to push the Lions in their own right after both franchises were active in the opening phase of free agency. Green Bay uncharacteristically attacked the market, adding playmakers like safety Xavier McKinney and back Josh Jacobs. Chicago, on the other hand, managed to retain Jaylon Johnson – PFF’s highest-graded corner last season – while adding a slew of offensive weapons, including Keenan Allen for their soon-to-be-named rookie quarterback.

NFC East

• Dallas Cowboys: +115 (47%)
• Philadelphia Eagles: +135 (43%)
• New York Giants: +900 (10%)
• Washington Commanders: +1000 (9%)

Despite the Giants spending more than $128 million in guarantees this offseason, oddsmakers still see the NFC East as a two-horse race between Dallas and Philadelphia. Although the Cowboys sit atop the division markets at this point, they’ve experienced a roster exodus of sorts that saw the departure of some key contributors in Tyron Smith and Tony Pollard. They've only spent just $9.8 million this cycle – the lowest of any franchise.  

Conversely, the Eagles were active in all facets of the market, signing high-end talents like edge Bryce Huff and back Saquon Barkley in addition to extending Landon Dickerson. While those are exciting additions, this roster isn’t without its shortfalls after seeing Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox‘s retirements, making this race closer than it frankly should be in the NFC East.  

NFC South

• Atlanta Falcons: -110 (52%)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +300 (25%)
• New Orleans Saints: +340 (23%)
• Carolina Panthers: +1000 (9%)

The Falcons inked former Vikings signal-caller Kirk Cousins to a massive four-year, $180 million contract, catapulting Atlanta to pole position in the NFC South. After taking over as the new head coach, Raheem Morris spoke plainly on the team’s pitfalls at quarterback and promptly addressed them. Cousins inherits an offense with some quality young playmakers that could use a boost from the passing game, including the likes of Drake London and Bijan Robinson, which could facilitate this unit's breakout.  

The NFC South wasn’t particularly strong in 2023, and outside of Atlanta, it doesn’t profile to make waves in the NFC. However, the Bucs did manage to retain a number of players key to their 2023 efforts that resulted in a playoff win. The tandem extensions for Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans as well as placing All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr. on the franchise tag should at the very least put Tampa in range of competing. 

NFC West

• San Francisco 49ers: -240 (70%)
• Los Angeles Rams: +450 (18%)
• Seattle Seahawks: +900 (10%)
• Arizona Cardinals: +1100 (8%)

Like their counterparts in the AFC, the NFC West is shaping up to be an uphill battle for anyone outside of San Francisco. The Niners hold the second-shortest odds to win a division, behind only their Super Bowl 58 opponent, Kansas City. While the Niners weren’t overly active in the opening wave of free agency, they return nearly every key contributor from last season. Emblematic of the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” methodology.   

Elsewhere around the NFC West, teams are struggling to keep pace with San Francisco. The Rams bid farewell to the most dominant defender the modern NFL has ever seen, Aaron Donald, this offseason. While, Seattle did what many thought they would never do, in parting ways with Pete Carroll, in favor of a fresh face in Mike Macdonald. And lastly, the Cardinals, who, while active on the open market, failed to entice many high-end signees, and as a result, failed to move the needle with Oddsmakers.