NFL Betting 2024: Data-driven tackle and sack props for Super Bowl 58

• Chris Jones set to finally get a sack in the Super Bowl: While the San Francisco 49ers are no easy matchup, Jones has the advantage and should be able to get home for at least a half-sack.

• Nick Bolton in line for a nice bounce-back week: After a quiet AFC Championship Game, Bolton is in line to deliver stronger tackler numbers in the Super Bowl.

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The Super Bowl represents the final opportunity for prop bettors to focus on the key matchups and accompanying prop bets one last time this NFL season. The often-overlooked defensive props are going to be a part of the action, and with some key data points, there is an advantage to be had for those looking to make some money this weekend.

Bet: Fred Warner UNDER 8.5 tackles and assists

• Warner is arguably the best linebacker in the NFL, but this matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs doesn’t necessarily bode well for his tackle total, which is currently set at 8.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
• The Chiefs rank 23rd in the league in tackles allowed per game to the linebacker position (15.8), a below-average mark.
• Kansas City’s 23.7% tackle efficiency allowed to the linebacker position to rank 27th in the league through the regular season and playoffs.
• The Chiefs are also the fifth-most heavy passing attack in the league at 66.3% of offensive plays, which could be an issue for Warner who has been a better tackler against the run compared to the pass this season.
• In the regular season, Warner finished closer to expected in total tackles versus expected (-3.1) but had much more positive numbers in that regard against the run (+5.2) where he finished among the bottom 17th percentile against the pass in this metric (-8.4).

Bet: Nick Bolton OVER 8.5 tackles and assists

• Bolton enters this game as Kansas City’s only every-down linebacker, playing 100% of the team's defensive snaps and by far the highest average snap share at the position on the team, which allows him to maximize his tackle opportunities.
• Bolton has also been one of the best in the league at maximizing those opportunities as one of the most effective tacklers in the league, consistently performing well above expected as a tackler since entering the NFL.
• Even with missed time due to injury this year, Bolton finished among the top 85th percentile in tackles versus expected for his position after being among the 99th percentile in each year prior.
• Bolton has been particularly effective as a tackler against the run, posting 6.8 tackles over expected against the run (89th percentile) compared to -1.7 versus the pass (55th percentile).
• The San Francisco 49ers enter this game as the most run-heavy team in the entire league, running the ball on 44.5% of its offensive plays.
• San Francisco also ranks exactly league average in tackles allowed to the linebacker position on a per-game basis (16.5), but over the past two playoff games have allowed at least 20 tackles to the position per game.
• Bolton is coming off a quieter performance in the AFC Conference Championship against a Baltimore Ravens team that had yielded 13 or fewer tackles to the linebacker position in three of their past four games and ran the ball just 11 times in that game.
• He should be in a great spot to bounce back this week and hit his over against the 49ers this week.

Bet: Trent McDuffie OVER 3.5 solo tackles

• McDuffie, much like Bolton, suffered from the Ravens running the ball so few times in the AFC Conference Championship Game but is primed for a bounce back here in the final game of the year.
• McDuffie, also like Bolton, has been particularly more effective as a tackler against the run, earning 7.2 tackles over expected against the run (92nd percentile) this season compared to 8.9 tackles below expected against the pass (12th percentile), so he should be able to take advantage of this matchup against the run-heavy 49ers.
• McDuffie is also the primary slot corner for Kansas City, which yields a better tackle efficiency on average for slot (8.4%) versus wide (7.1%) cornerback alignments as he should stay close to the action and be involved more in defending the run.
• The 49ers have yielded an average of 12.0 tackles per game over the last three games, which is closer to the league average, but still makes 3.5 solos — which have a higher ratio versus assists for corners than any other defensive position — a solid number for the Chiefs second-leading tackler during the regular season.

Bet: Chris Jones OVER 0.25 sacks

• It’s worth noting that this will be Jones’ fourth Super Bowl appearance, and he has yet to record a sack in any of his previous three games, despite being one of the best pass-rushers in the league. The man is due for at least a half-sack in this one, though it won’t be easy which is why he’s getting plus odds for over bettors.
• Jones holds one of the better matchup advantages in the trenches this week, going against the 49ers interior offensive line — where the highest pass-blocking grade among them this year is 65.9, held by right guard Jon Feliciano.
• Both the left guard (Aaron Banks) and center (Jake Brendel) rank below average in pass-blocking grades for their positions.
• Jones, meanwhile, owns the third-highest pass-rush grade (90.0) for his position and has been among the elite for several consecutive seasons.
• Brock Purdy and the 49ers do not give up a lot of sacks, with Purdy boasting an impressive 13.8% pressure-to-sack conversion rate on the year.
• The 49ers have allowed five sacks in two playoff games this year, so it hasn’t been impossible to get to Purdy, and Jones is by far the best bet to do so for Kansas City.