NFL Betting 2022: Week 2 spread pick to bet before lines move

• Jaguars Show Promise: Take Jacksonville (+4) against the Indianapolis Colts when considering the humid weather and what Trevor Lawrence proved capable of with his new receiving group.

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Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) vs. Indianapolis Colts

• The Jaguars came back and nearly beat a much-improved Commanders team in Week 1. Indianapolis' offense, meanwhile, got a ridiculous effort from Jonathan Taylor and still couldn’t beat the Texans in Week 1. The Colts will now travel to Jacksonville, where it will be hot (85 degrees) and humid (60% chance of rain). Winning by more than a field goal doesn’t seem like it will be a common occurrence for Indianapolis this season.

• Trevor Lawrence started to come alive in the second half against the Commanders, finding a groove with his newly acquired wide receivers. We’ve already seen this Colts team struggle in Jacksonville when they lost in Week 18 with a playoff berth on the line.

• One reason to be wary is that a Jonathan Taylor bludgeoning, which everyone expected to happen last year, could actually happen this time around.

New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.

Last week: We hit our Lock of the Week, with Patrick Mahomes going over 2.5 passing touchdowns. Tune into the PFF Forecast on Wednesday to hear who earns that honor for Week 2.

About this article: Early-week NFL lines have yet to move dramatically on the back of smart bettors picking off opportunity, which informs the sportsbooks where to move their numbers. We try to identify opportunities to get numbers that will no longer be available by the end of the week and thereby give our readers “closing line value” (when the line you have is better than the closing line). Closing line value is a predictor of long-term betting success. We also place bets based on what our model outputs show early in the week, and you can find those here with a PFF+ subscription.