NFL Betting 2022: Sam Monson's favorite Week 7 picks

• The return of DeAndre Hopkins: Kyler Murray posted a 141.4 passer rating when targeting Hopkins last season. The year before, that figure was 110.0. Getting in that ballpark would be a huge upgrade for this Cardinals offense.

• Geno Smith‘s big year continues: Smith has 11 big-time throws to Justin Herbert’s seven; he also has a better completion rate, a better adjusted-completion rate and is generating 8.0 yards per attempt compared to Herbert's 6.7.

• Jacoby Brissett to bounce back: The Browns QB is very unlikely to be as careless with the ball as he was, which completely changes the outlook for the offense. They should have a far better game, and Baltimore’s quarterback hasn’t been playing his best football of late.

Last updated: 6:45 am ET Thursday

PFF's mobile app features a brand-new tool called Smart Bets, which uses PFF data and insights to highlight betting edges throughout the NFL season. This season, we've used these insights to construct this article series, which has led us to a record of 9-5 and a push, including two weeks of 4-1 records.

Let's highlight my favorite Week 7 bets.

New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

PFF SMART BET GRADE: B

To quote Ian Rapoport, “It seems the entire Saints team is banged up.” And on a short week, that’s a major factor heading into this game with the Cardinals.

As much as things haven’t been going great for Arizona, they get DeAndre Hopkins back this week. Not only is he their best receiver, but he is also a player capable of winning consistently without scheme help. Kyler Murray posted a 141.4 passer rating when targeting Hopkins last season. The year before, that figure was 110.0. Getting in that ballpark would be a huge upgrade over his current 81.8 this season.

The Cardinals still have enough teeth at home to cover this line against an injury-riddled Saints team.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-1)

PFF SMART BET GRADE: C

I won’t pretend it will feel good to bet on the Broncos, but remember they covered the spread in their miserable loss against the Chargers on Monday night.

The Broncos defense is an elite unit that can bring pressure and hold up on the back end with players like Patrick Surtain II in coverage. Edge rusher Baron Browning now has the second-best pass-rush win rate in the league, and the Jets offensive line is still trying to pull itself together after all the injuries they have dealt with.

There’s a good chance Denver’s defense can trouble the Jets offense, once again setting Russell Wilson and the offense up to stumble their way over the line.

Seattle Seahawks (+6) @ Los Angeles Chargers

PFF SMART BET GRADE: B

This year, Geno Smith has arguably been the better quarterback in this matchup, which would have seemed like absolute madness six weeks ago.

Smith has 11 big-time throws to Herbert’s seven; he also has a better completion rate, a better adjusted-completion rate and is generating 8.0 yards per attempt compared to Herbert's 6.7.

Seattle’s offense can do damage, so the question becomes whether their defense can hold its own enough to slow down the Chargers. They currently rank 30th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, so that’s far from a given, but it’s a lot of points to give a team that is laboring as much as the Chargers.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders (Over 41.5)

PFF SMART BET GRADE: B

A listless Packers passing attack and a Commanders offense now helmed by Taylor Heinicke — you can see why many expected this to be a low-scoring game.

However, Washington’s defense is allowing a 112.3 passer rating this season, 27th in the league. And while they can generate pressure, the back end is still incredibly porous.

Green Bay ranks just one spot ahead of Washington despite all of the offseason buzz about how good this unit would be. This is the best collection of receivers Heinicke has played with, and we know there are high-end games in his repertoire. There is too much offensive talent on display for this game to go under.

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

PFF SMART BET GRADE: B

Last week was ugly for the Cleveland Browns, who lost 38-15 to the Patriots. It was a score that flattered them overall, but it was also the low end of Jacoby Brissett‘s play, which will be a huge determining factor for their success.

Brissett has been good this year, but he recorded five turnover-worthy plays against the Patriots, matching his total for the five previous games combined. He’s very unlikely to be as careless with the ball as he was, which completely changes the outlook for the Browns offense. They should have a far better game, and Baltimore’s quarterback hasn’t been playing his best football of late.