NFL Betting 2022: Best futures bets for division win totals

This time of year, there isn't much left to bet on vis-à-vis the NFL. Many of the season-long props are weeks old or not available, while regular-season wins, division props and the like have been around for months and are pretty efficient until the next batch of significant news.

However, DraftKings Sportsbook has put up “Division Specials,” which is a line for the number of wins within a division that a team will have. This is an interesting market for a number of reasons, most of them being the interplay between home-field advantage, travel and familiarity — factors for which no one really has a concise answer in handicapping. PFF's simulation takes these factors into account, and as such, here are some bets in this market that are worth looking at:

Note: Due to the uncertainty in Cleveland, there are no markets for the AFC North

NFC North

• Green Bay Packers OVER 4 wins in the division (-150)
• Minnesota Vikings OVER 3.5 wins in the division (+135)
• Detroit Lions OVER 2.5 wins in the division (+115)
• Chicago Bears UNDER 2.5 wins in the division (-140)

We make the true prices for these -185 for Green Bay, +115 for Minnesota, +105 for Detroit and -233 for Chicago. This is a fade on the Bears.

NFC West

• Arizona Cardinals OVER 3 wins in the division (+110)
• Seattle Seahawks UNDER 2 wins in the division (-115)

We make the true prices here -143 for Arizona and -200 for Seattle. Interestingly, we don’t really see an edge either way for the Los Angeles Rams or San Francisco 49ers.

AFC West

• Kansas City Chiefs OVER 3.5 wins in the division (+110)
• Denver Broncos UNDER 3 wins in the division (+100)

We make the true prices here -112 for Kansas City and -150 for Denver. The prices for the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders are efficient currently, per our simulation.