Week 17 exists for two things: DFS and player props.
Player props are a great way to transition from fantasy to sports betting, and PFF's player props tool is the only place where you control both number and price to guarantee your expected value for each prop placed.
Written picks have done well based on this tool, going 82-53 as we head into the final week of regular-season action. This record is based on grading against the closing line number. One-unit wagers have profited 23.95 units this season when minus-priced props are set to win one unit and plus-money props risk one unit.
Week 17 has plenty of usage concerns, as some teams are resting all of their players while other teams could easily sit their stars after one half. Motivation is also a question for teams well outside of the playoff picture, which makes unders the correct side to target for player props. Only four of the 16 games have a total above 50, and five more games look like a disaster from a fantasy-scoring perspective.
There are also a handful of games with cold, wind and rain concerns, as games in the Northeast could experience inclement weather. This will obviously impact player props, but be wary of simply fading these situations, as the market should move to an efficient number based on the latest information.
Let’s dive into the best player props to make as we head into the final Sunday of regular-season football. If you would like to hear a full discussion of all player props for this Sunday’s slate, make sure to listen to the PFF Daily Betting podcast.
Let’s dive into the best player props to make as we head into the main slate of Week 17. If you would like to hear a full discussion of all player props for this Sunday’s slate, make sure to listen to the PFF Daily Betting podcast.
Drew Lock over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Week 17 looks like a make-or-break spot for the Denver Broncos‘ starting quarterback, who is coming off the best PFF passing grade of his 2020 season.
Lock still hasn’t come close to living up to preseason expectations, as the Broncos have sputtered to the second-worst opponent-adjusted offensive ranking. However, things are setting up well for the Broncos to overvalue Lock’s ability for the second straight offseason, given that he is in line for a quality game to finish 2020 strong.
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