Player props continue to grow in popularity, as they are an easy way for fantasy players to get accustomed to sports betting. Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between the 2017-2019 regular season. Week 4 finally brought an uptick, with the percentage of props going under now increasing to 52.2%.
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At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down slightly based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. This could be partially explained by a number of factors — more efficient play design, lower average depth of target or an increase in defensive pass interference calls, among others.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF’s player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. My written plays went 2-1 on Monday utilizing this tool, which brings our year to date record to 29-16 for +10.55 units.
We are entering the sweet spot for player props now that we have some idea of player usage, with those situations not fully baked into prop numbers yet. This Thursday night game has some interesting storylines, turning it into an exciting matchup. Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
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