It has been a wild start to the 2020 NFL season, with game totals going 19-13 toward the over. Scoring appears to be up, which has caused some changes to the prop market. Player prop unders are hitting at a 51.9% rate, which is the lowest percentage over the past four seasons. There are a number of potential reasons why scoring is up, but all are just speculation at this point in the season. It does seem like this trend could continue as we progress through the season, though.
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We didn’t have a great wrap up to Week 2 — our written plays went 1-2 on Monday night. We now sit at 17-11 for the season and are up 4.3 units against the closing line price. We have made a couple of small changes to our player props tool, given the scoring increase to start the 2020 season. There could be fewer plays on unders due to the general direction that those bets have trended this season. Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Thursday Night Football before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
We finally have the matchup everyone has been waiting for on Thursday Night Football. The Beard versus the Mustache — the possibilities seem endless.
The spread movement has been all one-sided, moving from a pick ‘em to start out to -3 for the home favorites. Bettors are heavily backing Gardner Minshew. He has covered the first two games of the 2020 season, moving his career against the spread record to 8-7. The 93% cash spread percentage highlights that both the public and big bettors are buying into the Jaguars tonight. This has caused the market to move considerably and land on the most important spread number. Miami backers are finding their way to the moneyline to look for a plus-money payout, with the spread not worth playing until it touched +3.
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