• Tyler Allgeier has the right role: In Week 1, it was not Bijan Robinson who got the red-zone snaps. Those snaps went to Allgeier, who boasted an 80% snap share when Atlanta was in the red zone and a 100% share when the team was inside the 5-yard line.
• A bounce back for Kadarius Toney? Toney certainly struggled with drops in the Week 1 loss to the Lions, but he stayed healthy, and no other Chiefs receiver emerged to steal his role in the offense. If anything, he is another week removed from his injury and could play more snaps.
• Running it back: Judah Fortgang's same-game parlays gave a $100 bettor an 86.1% ROI last year.
1. RB Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons (+210)
• The Falcons always tilt run-heavy. When they got to the red zone, Atlanta ran the ball more than any other team last season, with a run rate over expected of 20%.
• A year ago, the Packers faced the eighth-most rushing attempts and allowed the ninth-most rushing scores in the red zone as teams chose to attack them via the ground game.
• In Week 1, it was not Bijan Robinson who got the red-zone snaps. Those snaps went to Allgeier, who boasted an 80% snap share when Atlanta was in the red zone and a 100% share when the team was inside the 5-yard line.
• There is little reason to think there will be any role change. Despite this, Robinson is priced at even money, while Allgeier is priced at nearly 2-1 despite being the team's red-zone and goal-line back.
2. WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs (+250)
• Kadarius Toney certainly struggled with drops in the Week 1 loss to the Lions, but he stayed healthy, and no other Chiefs receiver emerged to steal his role in the offense. If anything, he is another week removed from his injury and could play more snaps.
• The impetus for this bet is Toney’s red-zone role, where he earns targets at one of the highest rates in the league in addition to mixed-in designed runs.
• Attached to the dynamic Chiefs offense, in a likely uptempo game with the Jaguars, Toney should see plenty of looks in the red zone to allow him the opportunity to clear this prop.
3. RB Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins (+700)
• Last season, only in one week did Miami give one of its running backs more than 70% of the touches instead of divvying up the RB work among the active backs in a more even split. The snaps were similarly split when the team lined up in the red zone.
• With Devon Achane back in the fold after being inactive in Week 1 with a shoulder injury and Raheem Mostert nursing an injury, Achane should step into the 1b role with around a 35-40% snap share.
• Further bolstering the case is that MIA projects to be one of the top offenses on this slate, leaving Achane with more opportunities to find his way into the end zone.
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