• Can Breece Hall build on promising rookie campaign? A torn ACL cut short Hall's 2022 season, but he was on pace to be one of the NFL's most productive running backs. He is +1800 to lead the NFL in rushing yards.
• Calvin Ridley returns from suspension, pairs up with Trevor Lawrence: The former first-round pick is back and primed to put up numbers on a new, dynamic offense. He is +4000 to lead the NFL in receiving yards.
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Breece Hall Most Rushing Yards (+1800)
While Hall’s rookie year was cut short due to a torn ACL last season, he burst onto the scene and showed off his explosive potential. Hall averaged an eye-popping 5.7 yards per carry, which was tied for the best mark in the league among running backs with at least 70 attempts. With the addition of a former MVP quarterback this offseason in Aaron Rodgers, the Jets’ offense should expect to see fewer stacked boxes in 2023, as defenses will be forced to respect the passing attack more than they did while Zach Wilson and Mike White were under center.
Coming back from a knee injury is certainly a concern for the second-year back out of Iowa State. However, if positive news surfaces on Hall’s recovery as we get closer to training camp, this number has the potential to get shorter.
With all of these factors baked in, Breece Hall to lead the league in rushing yards at +1800 is worth throwing a few dollars on.
Calvin Ridley Most Receiving Yards (+4000)
This season will feature the long-awaited return of Ridley after his year-long suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. After being traded to the Jaguars, Ridley gets to catch balls from Trevor Lawrence, who showed why he was such a highly touted prospect last season under the leadership of Doug Pederson.
The last time we saw a full season from Ridley, formerly with the Atlanta Falcons, he ranked eighth in the NFL in receiving yards (1,374) at an impressive clip of 9.6 yards per target in 2020. He also led the league in average depth of target (15.1) and finished sixth in yards per route run (2.32).
This year, he gets to team up with Lawrence on a warm-weather team that plays three of its road games in domes and another in Florida against the Buccaneers. There is certainly some risk that Ridley comes out of the gates rusty after missing last season and much of his 2021 campaign due to injury, but that seems to be factored into the number. He has the potential to be the top pass-catching option on one of the league’s best offenses.
Jaylen Waddle Most Receiving Yards (+2000)
Another potential high-upside option in the most receiving yards market is Waddle, who enjoyed a breakout season during his first year in Mike McDaniel’s high-powered offense. The speedy receiver out of Alabama ranked seventh in the NFL in receiving yards (1,356) while racking up 2.34 yards per route run in 2022, which was tied for seventh among receivers with 100 or more targets.
One way Waddle can improve on those already gaudy numbers is by reducing his drop rate, which was at 10.3% last season due to a league-leading nine drops. If he can get that figure below the 8% rate he posted in 2021, there are plenty of more yards on the table in 2023.
Waddle was able to put up those stats while playing second-fiddle to Tyreek Hill, who gobbled up 181 targets last year. Hill is under investigation for an alleged assault, so it is possible that Waddle could become Tua Tagovailoa’s No. 1 receiver if Hill has to miss any time due to a suspension.
With Waddle’s capability to put up huge stats as a No. 2 receiver and the potential for him to become the top option by either surpassing an aging Hill or having to supplant his role for a period of time this season, this +2000 price to lead the league in receiving yards has some value.
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