Player props continue to grow in popularity, as they are an easy way for fantasy players to get accustomed to sports betting.
Subscribe to
Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between the 2017-2019 regular season. 2020 has seen a similar lean to under, but overs actually had a brief high point early in the season. Week 8 saw the second significant correction for unders, which rebounded after last week's lean toward overs. Some of this was weather-related, but the expectation is that we continue to trend in this direction as we head into the latter half of the season.
| Week | Percentage of “under” wins | Percentage of “over” wins |
| 1 | 52.45% | 47.55% |
| 2 | 51.49% | 48.51% |
| 3 | 51.42% | 48.58% |
| 4 | 53.50% | 46.50% |
| 5 | 55.15% | 44.85% |
| 6 | 59.49% | 40.51% |
| 7 | 46.41% | 53.59% |
| 8 | 57.06% | 42.94% |
The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.3% for the season. We have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down slightly based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Passing touchdowns appear to lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. Passing, rushing and receiving yardage props continue to go under at a high rate, which makes them great to target late in the season.
| Prop Category | Percentage of “under” wins | Percentage of “over” wins |
| Passing Attempts | 58.85% | 41.15% |
| Passing Completions | 51.71% | 48.29% |
| Passing Interceptions | 49.25% | 50.75% |
| Passing TDs | 47.06% | 52.94% |
| Passing Yards | 54.17% | 45.83% |
| Receptions | 52.81% | 47.19% |
| Receiving Yards | 53.75% | 46.25% |
| Rushing Yards | 55.92% | 44.08% |
| All Props | 53.30% | 46.70% |
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays rebounded quite well in Week 8, after the first down week all season occurring in Week 7. They went 8-1 across three write-ups, which brings my year-to-date written prop record to 46-30-1 for +11.65 units against the closing line.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood. We are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but being able to take a loss that is still based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Thursday night football in Week 9 before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32
Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades
Already have a subscription? Log In
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.