• WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans — over 5.5 receptions: Before his Week 5 injury, Nico Collins was performing at an elite level, averaging 3.50 yards per route run and earning a league-leading 92.4 PFF receiving grade. Since the beginning of the 2023 season, his 92.7 receiving grade remains the highest among all NFL wide receivers, highlighting his game-changing ability.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Houston Texans (-7) vs Dallas Cowboys [Total: 41.5]
Game Overview
Monday Night Football heads to Texas for a showdown between a Texans team aiming to rebound from a tough start to November and a Cowboys squad in free-fall after four consecutive losses.
With Dak Prescott sidelined for the season due to a hamstring injury, Dallas turned to Cooper Rush in Week 10. The already struggling offense, led by a limited quarterback, faced an aggressive Eagles defense, resulting in a disastrous performance. Rush managed just 45 passing yards, averaging 2.0 yards per attempt, and earned a 40.8 PFF passing grade.
This week’s matchup feels eerily similar to last week when Dallas was also a 7-point home favorite, only to lose to Philadelphia by 28 points. That defeat marked the Cowboys’ fourth straight failed cover, dropping them to a dismal 2-7 against the spread — good for the second-worst cover rate in the NFL (22.2%).
Things have been rocky in Houston, as well, with the Texans dropping three of their last four games due to a mix of injuries and lackluster performances. In Sunday night’s loss to the Lions, the Texans' defense forced an impressive five interceptions but received little support from the offense, which left the team scoreless in the second half.
Despite the Week 10 loss, the Texans managed to cover as home underdogs, improving to 4-2 against the spread since the start of October. Much of their recent competitiveness can be credited to a stout defense, which has posted the NFL’s fifth-best EPA allowed per play over that stretch.
Offensive struggles, combined with their strong defensive play, have led to seven unders hitting on the game total through 10 games this season.
WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans: Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)
Not to discount the contributions of players like Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and John Metchie III, who have performed admirably in Nico Collins‘ absence, but this Texans offense takes on a completely different dynamic with a truly elite receiver on the field.
Before his Week 5 injury, Collins was performing at a dominant level, averaging 3.50 yards per route run and earning a league-best 92.4 PFF receiving grade. Since the start of the 2023 season, his 92.7 receiving grade leads all NFL receivers, underscoring just how impactful he is as a game-changer in the Texans' offense.
During his time on the field this season, Collins led the team in threat percentage (27.2%) and saw 44 targets in just four full games. That heavy involvement translated into six or more receptions in three of those outings, making him a reliable and explosive option for quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Collins’ return poses a significant challenge for a struggling Cowboys secondary that ranks 31st in team coverage grade (49.1). While Dallas has faced the fewest pass attempts in the league this season, their inability to limit explosive plays remains a glaring issue. They rank 29th in preventing 15-plus yard receptions, allowing such plays on 16.1% of their coverage targets. This is precisely the type of matchup Stroud and Collins can exploit, setting the stage for a long day for the Cowboys' defensive backfield.
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