PFF breaks down Week 16's Monday Night Football matchup by looking at both teams' records, key trends and a game overview before delivering the best bet backed by PFF's trusted betting model.
New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers (-13.5) [Total: 42.5]
Game Overview
The Week 16 slate concludes with an NFC matchup with more playoff implications than it might initially seem. While the Saints have been eliminated from Wild Card contention, they still cling to slim hopes of claiming the NFC South, needing to win out and get significant help. Meanwhile, the Packers aim to lock in their playoff berth with a win or tie, though they remain on the periphery of the NFC North title race.
The Packers have been on an impressive run since returning from their bye in Week 11, posting a 3-1-1 record against the spread over that span. However, their overall 7-6-1 ATS mark this season will face its toughest test yet, as they have not encountered a spread of more than a touchdown all year.
Green Bay has been firing on all cylinders since Week 11, earning top-eight overall grades on both offense (83.3) and defense (71.9). The Packers have outscored opponents by 13 or more points in three of their last five games, including a dominant road win over Seattle last week.
The Saints, meanwhile, face an uphill battle as they navigate uncertainty at quarterback. Last week, New Orleans turned to Jake Haener over rookie Spencer Rattler, a decision that proved costly. Haener managed just 38 net yards of offense in the first half before being benched for Rattler, who nearly orchestrated a comeback. Rattler has been named the starter for this week’s game.
While Rattler helped the Saints secure a backdoor cover against Washington, he hasn’t been successful in betting markets during his limited starts this season. In his starts from Weeks 6 through 8, the fifth-round rookie went 0-3 ATS.
Adding to the Saints’ challenges, the team has struggled on the road, posting a 2-4 ATS record away from New Orleans this season. Their last road cover came all the way back in September.
RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: Over 21.5 carries (-105)
At first glance, 21.5 carries might seem like a high bar to clear, but Josh Jacobs has been the epitome of a workhorse back. Since returning from their bye in Week 11, Jacobs has logged 107 carries, accounting for 74.3% of the Raiders’ designed runs.
While he’s surpassed this line only twice in his last five games, the matchup plays heavily in his favor. The Saints have struggled to stop the run all season, earning the league’s second-worst team run defense grade (46.7).
Compounding their issues, New Orleans’ offense is searching for answers after losing its last reliable playmaker, Alvin Kamara. With limited options to carry the load, the Saints are left scrambling to find consistency.
Add snowy conditions in Green Bay to the equation, and the game script is set for Jacobs to be heavily involved from the outset.
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