• QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers — under 0.5 interceptions: The Chargers' signal-caller has been on fire over his past five games, earning the NFL’s highest passing grade (93.4) since Week 7. During that span, Herbert has recorded a league-leading 17 big-time throws while committing just two turnover-worthy plays.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers [Total: 50.5]
Game Overview
The primetime lights of Monday Night Football will shine on the third installment of the Harbaugh Bowl, as Jim’s Chargers host John’s Ravens. Historically, this matchup has favored big brother John, who holds a 2-0 record both straight up and against the spread.
However, those games took place over a decade ago, and this time, the stakes are just as high but take on a different shape. Both teams are battling for AFC playoff positioning, with each currently clinging to a wild-card berth.
Jim Harbaugh has positioned his Chargers for success both on the field and in betting markets. Los Angeles boasts a top-five cover rate (70%) in the NFL, with a 5-1 record against the spread (ATS) since the start of October and an undefeated 4-0-1 ATS record at home this season.
On the other hand, the Ravens have faltered recently, delivering less favorable betting results. Baltimore has gone 1-3 ATS since Week 8, including losses in their last two road games, which they entered as favorites.
Despite this, Baltimore still fields the league’s highest-graded offense (88.1) and leads in EPA per play this season, though their recent performance was underwhelming. To avoid another lackluster showing against a Chargers defense that ranks third in the league in EPA allowed per play, Baltimore will need strong performances from Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who are coming off their lowest-graded games of the season.
That could prove challenging, given the Chargers‘ offensive firepower in recent weeks. Since the start of November, Los Angeles has earned the NFL’s third-highest offensive grade (80.3), driven by Justin Herbert‘s exceptional play.
QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: Under 0.5 interceptions (+109)
The Chargers' signal-caller has been on fire over his past five games, earning the NFL’s highest passing grade (93.4) since Week 7. During that span, Herbert has recorded a league-leading 17 big-time throws while committing just two turnover-worthy plays. Although he had a potential interception dropped in Week 11, he has otherwise avoided turnover-worthy plays since Week 6 and hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 2.
Baltimore’s coverage unit has struggled this season, ranking in the bottom third of the league in EPA allowed per pass play and posting a team coverage grade of just 59.0. Interceptions have been hard to come by, with the team recording only seven picks across 491 coverage snaps — below the league average. To compound matters, Baltimore leads the NFL with eight dropped interceptions.
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