• Arizona Cardinals (+115): Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury rarely walk into a matchup with a clear advantage over their counterparts, but this very much looks like the setup on Monday night.
• WR DeAndre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions (-102): In 30 games with DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray both playing, Hopkins has seen nine or more targets 50% of the time and has consistently been the focal point of the Cards' passing attack.
Let’s dive into the best bets for the Monday Night Football clash between the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME LINES
It’s been a disappointing season for two teams that likely won’t clear their preseason win total or live up to what was widely considered reasonable preseason expectations.
New England has completely collapsed offensively in a year many expected them to take another step forward. After ranking ninth in expected points added (EPA) per play in 2021, Mac Jones & Co. have dropped to the sixth-worst mark in football this year and are looking up at distinguished offenses like that of the New York Jets and Washington Commanders.
It’s easy to blame New England's offensive woes on the offensive coordinator, but it feels like a combination of missteps, with Jones ranking 34th out of 40 quarterbacks in PFF passing grade. They’ve been league-average in every other facet of offensive play, meaning the offensive coordinator and quarterback deserve most of the blame in this failing experiment.
Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury rarely walk into a matchup with a clear advantage over their counterparts, but this looks like the setup on Monday night. Arizona is finally close to healthy at the skill positions and, in some ways, could be coaching and playing for their long-term future with the Cardinals.
The Cardinals aren’t clinging onto their playoff hopes like the Patriots are, but they should play like a team with nothing to lose now that they are finally capable of showcasing their best players on the field at the same time. It would take a masterclass from Bill Belichick defensively to win this game, which is why the Cardinals moneyline looks like an enticing opportunity.
New England will be without its top receiver in Jakobi Meyers and doesn’t have playmakers at the outside to elevate Mac Jones' struggles in the passing game.
If interested in a less-risky bet, the Cardinals also make sense as a viable teaser leg, with the expectation that a Patriots victory comes through their defense and has difficulty extending this game past a touchdown differential.
Pick: Cardinals +115 (playable to +105)
PLAYER PROPS
WR DeAndre Hopkins: Over 6.5 receptions (-102)
Hopkins saw a dramatic reduction to his target share in Marquise Brown’s and Kyler Murray’s return to action, but this looks more like an outlier occurrence than a new trend being established.
In 30 games with DeAndre Hopkins and Kyler Murray both playing, Hopkins has seen nine or more targets 50% of the time and has consistently been the focal point of the Cards' passing attack.
Brown should only help alleviate situations where the opposing defense doubles Hopkins and should force the Patriots into a high percentage of Cover 1 snaps, which they do at the second-highest rate in the NFL anyway.
Hopkins has seen very little man coverage so far this season but has exploited it in prior seasons, specifically his 2020 campaign, where he was a top-10 wide receiver in PFF grade against man-coverage schemes.
With everyone else concerned about the matchup for Hopkins, Monday night sets up as the perfect time to buy low on not only him but the Cardinals offense as a whole.
Playable to 6.5 (-110)
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