• QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs — under 284.5 passing yards: This bet is mainly due to how quickly this game could pass us by. The Chiefs complete passes at a very high rate, while the Eagles have every opportunity to run the ball down the Chiefs' throat.
• A tough spot for the quarterbacks: It takes a lot to get to this sort of number, and while Patrick Mahomes is exceptionally good, the game state and style will play a big part in how Monday night goes. Expect plenty of long, drawn-out drives, limiting the production of each quarterback.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Back at the start of the season, this Monday Night Football clash would have been circled on the calendar as a game all about two Super Bowl-caliber offenses. But as things have transpired, these two teams have benefitted greatly from strong defensive play, with the defensive contributions a key reason for their successes.
Although the Chiefs and Eagles remain two of the best offenses in the league, the expectation is that this won’t be quite as explosive as Super Bowl 57. As such, the total has moved from an opening 48.5 to 45.5, with the Kansas City Chiefs a juiced 2.5-point home favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Not much has changed for the Eagles since that Super Bowl. They have acquired a couple of veterans in Julio Jones and Kevin Byard, but their offense is almost exactly the same. The defense has added more rookies out of Georgia, as is seemingly the case every year.
A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, the offensive line and Jalen Hurts remain. However, they'll be without tight end Dallas Goedert, the third part of a receiving unit that plays almost every snap, which could be quite an important factor, given that there is little depth outside the three big receiving weapons.
The Chiefs still lack a bona fide downfield threat — as they have all year — but their success rate is still exceptionally high. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are leading the charge, while Rashee Rice has stepped up and can be viewed as the Chiefs' WR1 right now.
The big change in this team has come on the defensive side of the ball. The Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest expected points added (EPA) per pass play and the second-lowest success rate on passing plays, but their rush defense ranks 31st in EPA allowed per run play and 32nd in rushing success rate allowed.
With the Eagles missing one of their playmakers and the Chiefs' vulnerability in the run game, as well as the Chiefs' tendency to play slowly and their tendency to keep the completion rate high over the middle of the field, the clock could move swiftly.
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 284.5 passing yards (-113 FanDuel)
Betting the under on the league’s best quarterback coming off a bye, what could possibly go wrong?
This bet is mainly due to how quickly this game could pass us by. The Chiefs complete passes at a very high rate, while the Eagles have every opportunity to run the ball down the Chiefs' throat.
Patrick Mahomes has an average depth of target of 7.3 yards this season, the fifth-lowest mark in the league, and the Chiefs are facing a defense that is stacked at every level.
It takes a lot to get to this sort of number, and while Patrick Mahomes is exceptionally good, the game state and style will play a big part in how Monday night goes. Expect plenty of long, drawn-out drives, limiting the production of each quarterback.
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