• WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins — over 70.5 receiving yards: Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill are steadily building chemistry, with Hill quietly productive despite the modest volume. Since Tua’s return, Hill has cleared his yardage line in every game, averaging 2.34 yards per route run.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Miami Dolphins vs Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) [Total: 49]
Game Overview
The Week 10 slate wraps up on Monday night with an intriguing showdown between the Dolphins and Rams — two teams that many had counted out early in the season. However, both have renewed momentum in recent weeks, setting the stage for an explosive matchup.
Sean McVay’s Rams have been revitalized with the return of star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, which has bolstered their ability to sustain drives and hold onto leads. Since Kupp and Nacua rejoined the lineup in Week 8, Los Angeles has recorded back-to-back wins, both straight-up and against the spread. This stretch included an upset victory over Minnesota and a successful cover as road favorites against Seattle.
On the other side, Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins have also been reenergized with the return of Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, bringing renewed spark to the offense. While they’ve yet to notch a win since their franchise QB's return, they did cover the spread last week against Buffalo, improving to a solid 2-1 against the spread on the road since October.
Though Miami’s retooled offense hasn’t fully exploded, it has been highly efficient. Over the past two weeks, the Dolphins lead the NFL in EPA per play and boast the league’s highest success rate on offense (46.8%). They also rank second in late-down conversion rate (66.7%), underscoring their ability to sustain drives and capitalize on key situations.
This will be a substantial test for a young Rams defense that has shown noticeable improvement, ranking in the top four in EPA allowed per play since the start of October.
The Rams’ rookie class continues to flourish, as they’ve found key contributors throughout, from first-round edge defender Jared Verse (winner of PFF’s midseason Defensive Rookie of the Year) to undrafted free safety Jaylen McCollough (who has come down with three interceptions in last three games) each of whom rank among the top three in overall grade among first-year defenders this season.
WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins: Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110)
Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill are steadily building chemistry, with Hill quietly productive despite modest volume. Since Tua’s return, Hill has cleared his yardage line in every game, averaging 2.34 yards per route run. Leading the Dolphins with 152 receiving yards over that span, Hill has made the most of his 21.5% target percentage, a relatively low rate by his standards.
While the Rams defense has improved overall, they continue to struggle in coverage, frequently allowing big gains. They’ve conceded this yardage line to five different receivers in their last four games. Notably, they surrendered a combined 295 receiving yards to Vikings star Justin Jefferson and Seahawks rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba in their last two matchups, suggesting Hill has a favorable opportunity for another productive outing.
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