• QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets — over 1.5 passing TDs: Over the Bills' three-game road trip, the defense earned the lowest team coverage grade (40.0) in the NFL. That’s due in large part to their inability to limit chunk plays, as Buffalo allowed the highest explosive pass percentage (20.6%) in the league over that span.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Buffalo Bills (-2) vs. New York Jets [Total: 41]
Game Overview
A key AFC East showdown will close out Week 6, featuring two teams looking to regain momentum after back-to-back losses and missed covers. Both franchises have stumbled in recent weeks, making this matchup crucial as they fight to get back on track in the division.
The New York Jets will enter this prime-time matchup under the spotlight of the national media following the firing of head coach Robert Saleh, a move that raised eyebrows and questions around the league. Jeff Ulbrich steps into the interim job this week, with his first act as head coach being to replace Nathaniel Hackett as offensive playcaller in favor of Todd Downing.
That change on offense comes after a sizable drop-off in overall production and efficiency over the past two games, where they’ve ranked bottom-three in overall offensive team grade (58.0) and expected points added per play.
Despite the offensive struggles, New York’s defense has been a bright spot over the past two games, ranking second in EPA allowed per play and earning the fourth-highest team coverage grade (78.8) since Week 4.
That may present an issue for the Bills, who are coming to the end of a three-game road trip with their own fair share of issues on both sides of the ball.
Over the past two outings, Josh Allen and this Bills passing game have hit a wall, with the talented passer struggling to take care of the ball. He has produced the NFL’s worst turnover-worthy play rate (8.5%) and adjusted completion percentage (56.9%) on his way to just a 48.8 PFF passing grade.
With James Cook (toe) questionable after a pair of DNPs at practice to start the week, the pressure will mount for this passing game to carry the load, given recent struggles.
QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: Over 1.5 passing TDs (+153) — 8.5% PFF Greenline Edge
After a long week of speculation and subsequent denials from Rodgers regarding his role in the coaching change, this offense is under pressure to perform well. Over the past two games, the Jets’ veteran signal-caller ranks last at the position in yards per attempt (4.9) and passer rating (62.4). It's not as though he's forgotten how to throw the ball, though, as he also stands atop the league in big-time throws (6) over that span.
This will be a tough test for the Bills' coverage unit, which has struggled mightily against the pass recently. During their three-game road trip, Buffalo’s defense posted the NFL's lowest team coverage grade (40.0). Much of that decline stems from their inability to prevent big plays, as the Bills have allowed the highest explosive pass percentage (20.6%) over that stretch.
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