• WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys — over 67.5 receiving yards: Plagued with holes in the back end, this Bengals defense has allowed an open target on 58.6% of their coverage snaps and a reception of 15 or more yards on 22.7% — both of which rank bottom-five in the NFL over that span.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) vs Dallas Cowboys [Total: 49.5]
Game Overview
With neither franchise holding higher than a 2% chance to make the playoffs, according to PFF’s model, the odds of this game having any significant impact are exceedingly slim.
However, this game does carry some intrigue in betting markets. The Cowboys managed to string together a pair of wins to close out November, snapping a five-game failed cover streak. Dallas overcame its struggles at home — where the team was 1-5 straight up and against the spread — with its first home win of the year last week.
Those positive trends for Dallas will be put to the test against a Bengals team that has performed well in betting markets on the road. Cincinnati holds a 5-1 road record against the spread, including a 3-0 mark when favored.
Joe Burrow’s phenomenal season — he holds the NFL’s highest passing grade through Week 13 — has been marred by Cincinnati’s struggling defense, particularly during this crucial stretch of games. Since Week 8, the Bengals have earned the league’s lowest overall defensive grade (56.5) and rank last in EPA allowed per play.
Conversely, the Dallas defense has experienced a resurgence in recent weeks with the return of Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland to the lineup. With both players back and setting the tone for this unit, the Cowboys defense ranks second in EPA per play allowed over the past two weeks.
WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys: Over 67.5 receiving yards (-112)
The shift to Cooper Rush under center has understandably caused a dip in Lamb’s production. Over Rush’s four starts, Lamb has surpassed this receiving line just once — back in Week 11. However, volume remains on his side, as the talented receiver ranks fifth in targets (37) since Week 10. With continued opportunities, expect Lamb’s production to bounce back in this favorable matchup against a porous Bengals secondary.
Cincinnati’s struggling coverage unit has been a key factor in the team’s disappointing season. Since Week 8, the Bengals rank dead last in EPA per pass play allowed. Plagued by holes in the back end, this defense has allowed an open target on 58.6% of their coverage snaps and a reception of 15 or more yards on 22.7% of snaps — both marks rank in the bottom five in the NFL over that span.
This Bengals secondary has allowed a receiver to surpass this line in each of their last six games. In just their last two games, they gave up a combined 197 receiving yards and eight receptions of 15 or more yards to Steelers WR George Pickens and Chargers WR Ladd McConkey.
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