• Rams-Cowboys LIVE bet game plan: Bet the live under as the line rises well above 43 with the live odds failing to account for two teams that are much better scripted than not.
• Lions-Patriots LIVE bet game plan: If they abandon run early, bet Patriots team total under and consider Detroit alt line.
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Estimated reading time: 4 mins
Live betting can be one of the better ways to profit, as sports books are slower to adjust to new information than in other markets.
But with 14 games on Sunday, it can be quite overwhelming for the bettor to follow the different markets and capitalize on inefficiencies. The goal in this space is to provide angles to monitor, helping bettors cut through the noise and leave with a gameplan for what to live bet.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (Pre-game line: Patriots -3, 45.5)
Live-bet game plan: Bet patriots team total under, potentially lions alt lines
• The biggest advantage New England has in this spot is its run game (3rd in Run EPA) going up against the Lions' run ‘D' (32nd in EPA allowed). But such an advantage is contingent on game script; if the Patriots go down early, they likely will be forced to pass, unable to press their biggest advantage.
• New England has been a disaster throwing the ball in obvious passing situations. Although the Mac Jones-led offense accounts for much of the Patriots' position on this graph, it would be hard to argue that Bailey Zappe is an upgrade.
As live bettors, we get to decide on the bet depending on how the game script emerges. And if the Patriots are forced into a pass-heavy script, it might just get ugly.
• If the Patriots abandon the run—either because of inefficiency or after falling behind—they usually struggle to score points: Bet the live under.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (Pre-game line: Bucs -9.5, 46.5)
Live-bet game plan: If Bucs are passing on early downs, bet their alt line
• Bucs EPA on early downs:
· Passing: 0.12 (10th in NFL),
· Running: -0.17 (4th worst in NFL)
• Bucs Success Rate on early downs:
· Throwing: 52% (10th in NFL)
· Running: 36% (11th worst in NFL)
• For as long as Tom Brady has been in Tampa Bay, the success of the Bucs offense has hinged on their run-pass ratio on early downs. While the above might suggest a shift toward throwing the ball on early downs, it is possible the increased pass rate was a function of falling behind early the past two weeks.
• With the Bucs 10-point favorites this week, it is entirely unclear how they will approach their early-down run-pass ratio.
Again, this is an advantage for the live bettor. We will be able to tell quickly how the Bucs plan to approach this game.
· If the Bucs are running early and often: the Falcons' live spread/moneyline becomes intriguing, as Tampa Bay will be unlikely to sustain drives with such inefficiency on early downs.
· If Brady comes out passing early and often: look for a dominating blowout of the Falcons with alt Bucs lines firmly in play.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys (Pre-game line: Rams -5.5, 43)
Live-bet game plan:Look to play the under if it creeps up to 48/49
• This chart is becoming one of our favorites for live betting — and for good reason.
Both the Rams and Cowboys are above average on scripted pays, but they are struggling to score once the scripted plays finish.
• If the live line rises well above 43 with the live odds failing to account for what should be built in—these teams are much better scripted than not—bet the live under.
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