PFF Grades and Data: Key betting insights for every NFL Week 3 game

• J.K. Dobbins faces a familiar foe: Dobbins has found significant success against the Steelers in the past. Among 20 running backs with at least 25 carries against the Steelers since 2020, Dobbins ranks second in yards per carry (6.9) and has recorded 10 explosive runs of 10 or more yards.

• Jalen Ramsey has the upper hand on D.K. Metcalf: Over Ramsey’s nine-year career, only three wide receivers have seen 30 or more targets with Ramsey in primary coverage: DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton and D.K. Metcalf. In their last matchups in Weeks 13 and 18 of 2022, Ramsey held Metcalf to two catches for 14 yards and one touchdown on four targets while securing two interceptions.

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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

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Ahead of NFL Week 3, our media team has dived deep into the numbers to deliver key insights for every NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that shape each game.

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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

J.K. Dobbins faces a familiar foe in the Pittsburgh Steelers, a defense against which he has found significant success. Among 20 running backs with at least 25 carries against the Steelers since 2020, Dobbins ranks second in yards per carry (6.9) and has recorded 10 explosive runs of 10 or more yards.

George Pickens has totaled six catches for 86 yards against single coverage this season, a number that would be even higher if not for two big catches being negated by penalties. Since entering the NFL in 2022, Pickens has racked up 1,243 receiving yards against single coverage, ranking sixth among all pass-catchers. On the other hand, Asante Samuel Jr. has had an up-and-down record in single coverage over the same period, tying for the sixth-most passes broken up (15) but allowing the third-most receiving yards (855).

CHICAGO BEARS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Jaylon Johnson has carried his lockdown form into this season after a breakout 2023 campaign. Out of 125 cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps since 2023, Johnson boasts the lowest passer rating allowed at 28.3. In 2024 alone, he's allowed a mere 9.4 passer rating in coverage.

Jonathan Taylor‘s 6.1 yards after contact per rush last week against Green Bay marks his second-highest average since the start of the 2022 season. His best performance during this span was in Week 8 last year against the Saints, where he averaged 6.2 yards after contact per attempt.

HOUSTON TEXANS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Rookie Kamari Lassiter is off to an impressive start for the Texans. In 71 coverage snaps, he’s been targeted 10 times, allowing just three receptions for 28 yards and no yards after the catch. Lassiter has recorded one interception, with another nullified due to a defensive penalty in last week's game against Chicago.

Sam Darnold is thriving against man coverage in his first season with the Vikings. His 151.4 passer rating against man coverage ranks second in the league, trailing only Derek Carr (157.9). Darnold's four touchdown passes against man coverage are the most of any quarterback this season.

NEW YORK GIANTS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS

Malik Nabers had a breakout performance in just his second game, racking up 83 yards after the catch against Washington— the second-highest total by a Giants wide receiver since 2020. Nabers showed a similar ability at LSU, where he recorded three games with 80 or more yards after the catch.

Cleveland’s offensive line leads the league in pass-blocking snaps this season, with 94. Impressively, the line has yet to allow a sack, making them one of only five units in 2024 to achieve this feat.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The “Tush Push” is back in Philadelphia with newly appointed center Cam Jurgens replacing recently retired Eagles legend Jason Kelce.

In Week 1, the Eagles had mixed results, converting only one of three attempts with 1 yard to go, marking just the fifth time in Jalen Hurts‘ career he converted less than 50% of such attempts.

However, Week 2 was a different story. Hurts converted all four of his 1-yard attempts against Atlanta, the fifth time since 2020 he’s converted four or more times in a single game. For context, all other quarterbacks combined have only done this seven times, with no single quarterback exceeding two.

New Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has reinvigorated the offense, turning it into an early-season juggernaut. In 2023, the Saints ranked in the top five for EPA per play using play action, but they only used play action 14% of the time, the lowest rate in the NFL.

This season, the Saints lead the NFL in play action usage at 50% while still ranking in the top five in both EPA and yards per play.

DENVER BRONCOS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Zach Allen is off to a strong start as a pass rusher for Denver, posting a 23% win rate and a 25% pressure rate—more than double his previous career bests of 11% in both categories from the 2023 season.

Under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, the Buccaneers are utilizing screen passes on 27% of their pass plays, ranking in the top three in the league. This marks a significant increase from last season, when Tampa Bay called screens on just 10% of pass plays, ranking 26th in the NFL.

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS

Josh Jacobs has quickly become a central figure in the Packers offense. When defenses don’t stack the box with eight or more defenders, Jacobs has capitalized, averaging an impressive 6.7 yards per carry. He leads the league with 180 rushing yards against boxes of seven or fewer defenders. When facing a lighter box of six or fewer, his average skyrockets to 9.7 yards per attempt. The only way to slow Jacobs down so far this season has been to load the box with eight or more defenders, where his average drops to 2.8 yards per carry.

For Will Levis, it’s a mixed bag when it comes to holding onto the ball too long for the Titans. On pass attempts under 2.5 seconds, Levis has been mistake-free, posting a solid 84.3 passer rating with no turnovers or turnover-worthy plays.

However, his performance drops significantly when he holds the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. Levis’ passer rating falls to 55.2, 28th among qualifying quarterbacks, and he has thrown three interceptions tied for the second-most in the league. Despite the struggles, both his touchdown passes have come on these longer throws, showcasing his volatility when extending plays.

CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Over the last two seasons, the Panthers defense has struggled significantly against players in in-line alignments, allowing a league-worst 140.7 passer rating and eight touchdowns in that time. So far this season, Carolina has given up two touchdowns and is tied for the third-most receptions allowed (seven) to players from this alignment.

The Raiders have targeted tight ends 21 times in 2024, the third-highest total among all teams.

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Over Jalen Ramsey’s nine-year career, only three wide receivers have seen 30 or more targets with Ramsey in primary coverage: DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton and D.K. Metcalf. In their last matchups in Weeks 13 and 18 of 2022, Ramsey held Metcalf to two catches for 14 yards and one touchdown on four targets while securing two interceptions.

De’Von Achane has made a significant impact as a pass-catcher this season, leading all running backs with 14 receptions, 145 receiving yards and seven receiving conversions. Through two weeks, he's just 48 receiving yards shy of matching his 2023 total.

Last season, Mike MacDonald’s Ravens defense allowed only 5.9 yards per reception to running backs, the fourth-best in the NFL. His Seahawks defense is off to a similarly strong start in 2024, allowing just 17 receiving yards on nine catches by running backs (1.9 yards per reception).

DETROIT LIONS VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS

Kyler Murray has been exceptional against zone coverage this season, boasting a league-leading 93.0 passing grade and a 131.3 passer rating, second among quarterbacks. However, his performance drops significantly against man coverage, where his passing grade falls to 43.4 and his passer rating to 50.7. This could be problematic against the Lions, who have lined up in man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league (48%).

On the other side, Jonathan Gannon has dramatically increased the Cardinals' blitz rate from 26% last season to a fifth-ranked 41% this year, which has resulted in four quarterback hits and one sack. This pressure could be key as no quarterback has faced the blitz more than Jared Goff, who has been blitzed 271 times since the start of last season. While Goff’s 83.8 passing grade ranks third-best when not blitzed, it drops to 67.8 when facing blitzes, 19th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS

After leading all quarterbacks in 2023 with 63 scrambles for 421 yards, Lamar Jackson is once again making big gains in 2024. Through two games, he has 78 rushing yards on 10 scramble attempts.

CeeDee Lamb continues to dominate, particularly from the slot. Since the start of the 2023 season, his 26 explosive receptions of 15 or more yards are the most in the NFL.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS

Nick Bosa has consistently disrupted Matthew Stafford in their matchups. Since Stafford joined the Rams in 2021, Bosa has recorded 17 quarterback knockdowns (seven more than any other player) and 37 total pressures (17 more than any other defender). These are the most knockdowns and pressures Bosa has accumulated against any quarterback in his career.

Last season, the Rams excelled at limiting yards after contact, allowing just 2.5 per attempt, the second-best mark in the league. However, key losses in their front seven have made them more vulnerable this season, as they have allowed 292 total rushing yards after contact, the second-most in the NFL.

Meanwhile, 49ers running back Jordan Mason has been tough to bring down, ranking third in the league with 165 rushing yards after contact. His 10 carries of 5 or more yards after contact also rank second at the position.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS

The tight end position has been a major problem for the Chiefs' defense through the first two weeks of the season. Facing top talents like Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, and Mike Gesicki, the Chiefs have surrendered 25 receptions and 276 receiving yards to tight ends, both the highest marks in the league by a significant margin. Opposing tight ends have averaged an astonishing 3.74 yards per route run and have been targeted on 37% of their routes, well above the league average of 1.21 yards per route and a 17% target rate.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have been cautious in how they use Kirk Cousins in the pocket, avoiding any unnecessary movement. This led to the team running zero play-action plays against the Steelers. In contrast, their Week 2 comeback win against the Eagles saw a shift, with the Falcons using play action on 27% of their plays, ranking ninth in the NFL. This aligns with the play-action rate during Zac Robinson’s tenure as the Rams’ passing game coordinator from 2022-23, where they ranked 15th with a 26% play-action rate.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. BUFFALO BILLS

After co-leading the NFL with 11 deep passing touchdowns last season, Trevor Lawrence has continued to excel on deep throws this year. He leads all quarterbacks with 11 attempts, seven completions and 212 passing yards on throws of 20-plus yards downfield. This week, he'll face a tough test against a Bills defense that remains the only unit in the league yet to allow a completion on such deep throws this season.

Since 2023, the Jaguars' first-round edge-rushing duo of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker has been dominant, combining for 161 total pressures. That mark trails only the Cowboys' edge duo of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence and the Steelers' T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. This season, Hines-Allen and Walker have maintained their form with 14 combined pressures through two games. They'll face a strong challenge from the Bills' offensive tackle tandem of Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, who have allowed just two total pressures this season, tying the Saints for the best mark in the league.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been a dynamic runner this season, leading all quarterbacks with 11 scramble attempts for 110 yards, averaging an impressive 10.0 yards per carry. The Bengals defense, familiar with facing mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, has held up well against scramblers, allowing just 6.1 yards per carry since 2023, the third-best mark in the NFL.

On the offensive line, Bengals left guard Cordell Volson has been adequate in run blocking, but his struggles in pass protection are notable. His 48.0 PFF pass-blocking grade ranks sixth-worst out of 43 qualified left guards since 2022. Volson faces a tough challenge this week against Commanders interior rusher Jonathan Allen, who ranks second in pass-rush snaps and is tied for the fifth-most pressures when lined up over left guard during that same period.