• WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles — Over 5.5 receptions: Last season, Brown saw eight or more targets in 13 of his 16 games, which allowed him to eclipse this mark 11 times.
• QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles — Under 37.5 rushing yards: Saquon Barkley should handle much of the work on the ground — most likely coming at the cost of some of Hurts’ designed runs.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles (-3) [Total: 48.5]
Game Overview
São Paulo, Brazil, plays host to the first NFC matchup of the 2024 season, featuring a pair of teams with eyes fixated on a playoff run. The rare Friday night matchup is shaping up to be a high-powered one, Both Philadelphia (seventh) and Green Bay (ninth) rank in the top 10 of PFF's Power Rankings and both effectively open up 2024 on the road.
Jordan Love’s Packers start the year with momentum on their side after a stellar stretch to end the 2023 campaign during which the team won its first playoff game of the Love era, toppling the Cowboys in Dallas, 48-32. Green Bay has seemingly found yet another franchise passer in Love, who led the league in PFF passing grade (89.1) from Week 7 onward last season.
While Love’s weapons may not jump off the page, he elevates the play around him. That should bode well for the newest addition to this offense, running back Josh Jacobs, whose presence will surely assist in opening up coverages, if he can return to his 2022 form, which led to a league-leading 91.9 PFF rushing grade.
Conversely, the Eagles are looking to right the ship after losing steam late last season. Despite their tough finish, general manager Howie Roseman went to work this offseason to plug the holes in this roster. The heist of former division rival Saquon Barkley to headline this backfield and the trade for Jahan Dotson to complement an already dangerous receiving corp headline his offseason moves.
Additions didn’t stop with the offense, as Roseman also attacked the void in his secondary in the draft by selecting cornerback Quinyon Mitchell in the first round. Even still, the pride of this Philly defense rests with a vicious pass rush, led by second-year interior pass rusher Jalen Carter and former Jets breakout edge rusher Bryce Huff.
WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Over 5.5 Receptions (-124) — 0.6% PFF Greenline Edge
Without question, A.J. Brown is one of the league’s premier receivers on the outside, ranking among the position's best in nearly every receiving facet. He also happens to be quarterback Jalen Hurts’ favorite target and enjoys a hefty workload because of it. Last season, Brown saw eight or more targets in 13 of his 16 games, which allowed him to eclipse this mark 11 times.
The All-Pro receiver is not only a target monster in this offense — with a threat rate almost 7 percentage points better than any other Eagle — but he also ranks as one of the NFL’s most targeted receivers in general, particularly on late downs, where he placed fifth in the NFL.
Brown also happens to be one of the most physical receivers in the game, hauling in contested grabs at an impressive clip. In 2023, he brought down 14 contested grabs, the 10th most at the position.
When Hurts finds Brown, good things happen.
QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: Under 37.5 Rushing Yards (-117) — 1.3% PFF Greenline Edge
On the surface, it may seem odd to fade a dual-threat quarterback’s rushing total, especially for a player as talented as Jalen Hurts, but this line is a bit too high — and the numbers seem to support that.
Despite clocking more than 150 attempts last season and generating a 76.7 PFF rushing grade, Hurts managed to surpass this rushing yardage total in only four of his 18 games. More than 26% of his carries came on quarterback sneaks.
Add in the fact that Saquon Barkley will also handle much of the work on the ground — most likely coming at the cost of some of Hurts’ designed runs — and it's more difficult to foresee Hurts exceeding this line.
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