Week 10 was interesting in that Green Bay, Arizona, Miami and Cleveland got closer to their destinations, but Seattle and Tennessee got further away. A lot of the value is sucked out of the markets at this point, but there’s still some value remaining in fading Philly:
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After Week 1
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl: +550 after Week 1, now +330
Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC West and Super Bowl: +190 and +1400 after Week 1, now +125 and +1400
Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl: +2600 after Week 1, now +1000
Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South: +125 after Week 1, now +125
After Week 2
Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North: -140 after Week 2, now -1000
Philadelphia Eagles to miss the playoffs: -170 after Week 2, now +150
Arizona Cardinals to make the playoffs: +104 after Week 2, now -225
After Week 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC South: +100 after Week 3, now +195
New England Patriots to win the AFC East: +125 after Week 3, now +1600
After Week 4
Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs: -182 after Week 4, now -154
After Week 5
Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East: -125 after Week 5, now +700
After Week 6
Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North: -165 after Week 6, now +600
After Week 7
Washington Football Team to win the NFC East: +425 after Week 7, now +750
After Week 8
Miami Dolphins to make the playoffs: +184 after Week 8, now -148
After Week 9
Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs: +114 after Week 9, now +205
Our futures bet after Week 10
Philadelphia Eagles +154 to miss the playoffs
This is the second time we’ve gone to this well this year, but the Eagles have a brutal upcoming schedule and a quarterback who generates a negatively-graded play on almost 20% of his dropbacks in Carson Wentz. His irreducible inaccuracy is going to make it difficult for Philadelphia to compete against the likes of Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and, possibly, Drew Brees in the coming weeks. Now, a real question remains about which team will knock them off, but with the Eagles having a 46% chance of not winning the division in our simulations, this is a good bet to make.
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