Premium Content Sign Up

Examining Joe Burrow's 2020 NFL season passing yardage props

After four years of disappointment, things are optimistic in PFF’s hometown of Cincinnati. A.J. Green returns from injury and joins a pretty solid stable of receivers in Tyler Boyd, John Ross and second-round pick Tee Higgins. The defense acquired three new starters in the secondary, along with D.J. Reader in free agency to go with Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins up front. The team's 2019 first-round pick, Jonah Williams, is poised to play his first snap in 2020 after being out for all of last season, adding some punch to what was one of the worst offensive lines in football.  

[Editor’s note: Subscribe to PFF ELITE today to gain access to PFF’s Premium Stats and new Player Grades experience in addition to the 2020 NFL Draft Guide2020 Fantasy Rookie Scouting ReportPFF Greenline, all of PFF’s premium article content and more.]

The real reason for optimism, though, is the drafting of LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the first pick in April’s draft. The most valuable player in the PFF College era, Burrow joins Zac Taylor’s second season at the helm. As we discussed during our AFC North preview on the PFF Forecast last week, given the new seven-team playoff format, the Bengals could contend for a playoff spot sooner rather than later.  

Where I want to go in this article, though, is to Joe Burrow’s passing yardage prop. At Caesars, it’s currently at 3746.5 yards (-110 to both the over and the under). This appears to be a pretty good number, as our fantasy projection has him at 3734 yards, good for 10th in the NFL. If I had to bet this prop, I would probably go under.  But here are a few reasons for both sides.

Reasons to Like the Over

DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32

Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades

Already have a subscription? Log In

Betting Featured Tools
  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2024 Fantasy Draft Kit, with Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Mock Draft Sim, Rankings & PFF Grades

$24.99/mo
OR
$119.99/yr