• Bet on the Jaguars against the man-coverage-heavy Chiefs: There has been perhaps no offense better against man schemes than the Jaguars, as they lead the NFL in expected points added (EPA) against man coverage.
• Bet on Daniel Jones and Isaiah Hodgins: There is a game scenario in which Jones continues to find open receivers en route to 300 yards while finding his new No. 1 WR along the way for an elevated day.
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Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Story: QB Trevor Lawrence and WR Christian Kirk succeed against the Kansas City Chiefs‘ man coverage scheme
• The Kansas City Chiefs have run man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL this season, doing so on nearly 40% of their plays.
• There has been perhaps no offense better against man schemes than the Jaguars, as they lead the NFL in expected points added (EPA) against man coverage.
• While the Jacksonville Jaguars have three pass-catchers that can pop any week, Kirk far outweighs the rest when it comes to beating man coverage.
• Kirk’s target share against man coverage looks leads the team by a distance. He also generates far more separation (raw PFF grade), and he has averaged the most yards per route run of the group by far.
• Facing a high-powered Chiefs offense, there should be plenty of volume for Lawrence. The Jags quarterback should have success throwing to Kirk in man and keep this game close.
FANDUEL SGP BUILD:+3231
- Christian Kirk: TD
- Christian Kirk: 125+ receiving yards
- Jacksonville Jaguars: +7.5
- Trevor Lawrence: 300+ passing yards
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Story: Giants ride QB DANIEL JONES and WR ISAIAH HODGINS en route to upset win
• PFF recently studied the effect of perfectly covered plays in the NFL and how forcing even one coverage mistake is a huge determinant in whether that play will be successful.
Mistakes can be the result of a combination of scheme, receiver talent and matchup.
• As PFF’s Arjun Menon has shown, the Giants forced the most coverage mistakes during wild-card weekend. And this should not be just confused as a one-off, as the Giants have forced mistakes at the 10th highest rate in the NFL.
• This trend has coincided with the development of wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins, who has emerged as a legitimate and — dare I say it — dominant NFL wide receiver. There is a game scenario in which Jones continues to find open receivers en route to 300 yards while finding his new No. 1 WR along the way for an elevated day.
• In a game script in which the Giants lead, the under on Miles Sanders‘ rushing yards would provide value as a last leg. The current spread suggests the Eagles will lead the game, which would tilt them to the run and Sanders. But if we assume the Giants are leading in this one, Sanders figures to receive less rushing work.
FANDUEL SGP BUILD:+18424
- Daniel Jones: 300+ passing yards
- Isaiah Hodgins: 80+ receiving yards
- New York Giants: -5.5
- Miles Sanders: Under 67.5 rushing yards
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