Data-driven player prop picks for Week 18: Travis Etienne, Kenny Pickett

• Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing touchdowns: The Kansas City Chiefs are averaging 0.27 expected points added (EPA) per pass, good for first in the NFL. The Las Vegas Raiders are giving up 0.14 EPA per pass, ranking 32nd in the NFL. The Chiefs have a major passing advantage in this game.

• Travis Etienne over 65.5 rushing yards: This season, Jaguars running back Travis Etienne leads the league in rushing yards over expected, having a 5.1 yards per carry when only expected to get 4.0.

• Kenny Pickett under 16.5 rushing yards: Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett has gone under 16.5 rushing yards in four of his past five games. Given the tough matchup against the Browns defense, we could see this again on Sunday.

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BET: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105 DraftKings; playable to -115)

• Chiefs have a big passing advantage: The Kansas City Chiefs are averaging 0.27 expected points added (EPA) per pass, good for first in the NFL. The Las Vegas Raiders are giving up 0.14 EPA per pass, ranking 32nd in the NFL. The Chiefs have a major passing advantage in this game.

• Mahomes tears up the Raiders: Throughout his career, QB Patrick Mahomes has had a 7.8% touchdown percentage against the Raiders, which is above his career average of 6.4%.

BET: Travis Etienne Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 67.5)

• Etienne is the most effective rusher: This season, Jaguars running back Travis Etienne leads the league in rushing yards over expected, having a 5.1 yards per carry when only expected to get 4.0.

• He has gone over recently: In his past three games, Etienne has rushed for 103 yards, 83 yards and 108 yards. His explosiveness opens the door for his overs to hit more often than average running backs.

BET: Kenny Pickett Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 14.5)

• Browns stop scrambles really well: The Cleveland Browns have allowed the fewest yards to scrambles this season, with opposing quarterbacks rushing for 8.3 yards per game against them.

• Pickett has gone under recently: Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett has gone under 16.5 rushing yards in four of his past five games. Given the tough matchup against the Browns defense, we could see this again on Sunday.