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Data-backed NFL Bets: A top-down approach to beating the market in Week 9

2Y8RD2E Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) runs for a long gain against the Cleveland Browns during the second half of an NFL football game in Landover, Md., Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)

Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.

In this space, we’ll take a different approach. Each week, we’ll focus on one game and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.

While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.

Betting Featured Tools
  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

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  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

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  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

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  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

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