Week 6 College Football Picks: Bet Michigan-Indiana Under 59.5

• Bet Michigan-Indiana u59.5: Wolverines run 60% of the time and don't blow teams out; Indiana managed negative EPA/play against far inferior teams (Idaho, WKU, Nebraska).

• Though this is another relatively easy test for Michigan, the Hoosiers play better defense than the Wolverines' blowout victims in Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut.

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Last updated: Fri. Oct. 7, 8:50 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins

Last week’s bet went smoothly. As expected neither South Alabama nor Louisiana-Lafayette could get much offense going, and the game ended with South Alabama kicking a go-ahead field goal to win 20-17, giving Louisiana-Lafayette the easy cover at +9. 

Michigan (-22.5, Total: 59.5) @ Indiana 

Best Bet: Under 59.5

• Indiana’s offense has been bad this season. Their schedule has been relatively tough, but even in the easier tests against Idaho, Western Kentucky and most recently against Nebraska, the Hoosiers were not impressive despite some solid points totals – still averaging negative EPA per play on first and second down. They failed to score a point in the second half against Nebraska.

• Michigan’s schedule has been soft to say the least, but this test is not much harder, and to the benefit of anyone betting under on the total points, the Wolverines do face a slightly better defense than anything Colorado State, Hawaii or Connecticut were able to offer. Michigan will dictate the pace of the game once it has a lead are not a team that runs up the score; mainly because the Wolverines run the ball at a 60% clip, even outside of garbage time.

Ball State (+7.5, Total: 63.5) @ Central Michigan

Best Bet: Ball State +7.5

• We are going back to the well and taking on this Central Michigan offense for a second time this season. The Chippewas managed to put up two touchdowns against Penn State two weeks ago to make it competitive for a short period. But once it found its footing, Penn State shut CMU out in the second half, and the complete lack of offense has followed Central Michigan all season. The Chippewas only start scoring points once games are over — and that was once again the case against Toledo last week, when they scored only three points in the first half, trailing by 28 at the break. Even the Bucknell defense held CMU to single digits until midway through the third quarter.

• Ball State is an easier test than usual this season for Central Michigan, but the Cardinals offense can score enough to keep up with a stuttering Chippewas team. This spread opened at nine points, but it has been bet down to 7.5. There is still some value, and the key factor in this bet is getting the key number of seven onside.

• PFF Greenline has this spread at 6.6. 

This weekly preview has posted eight bets through five weeks and has a record of 5-3 for +1.7 units and a +19.32% ROI.